2500 Centennial Rd · Bismarck, ND 58503

$46,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $53k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very clean, new shingles 7/99, large master bedroom with master bath w/ french door. 195 Skyline 16 x 80 $200.00 lot rent. Basement - NONE.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Lots of cabinets
• Full bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• BIG KITCHEN
• LOTS OF COUNTER SPACE
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• FULL BATHROOM
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.2% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Robert Place Miller Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #137 of 236 statewide, top 63%, 479 students, 36% FRL); Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); South Central Alternative High School (94 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 19% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $318 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 50 sale attempts since 33y ago; this cycle's ask is 31% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $44,620 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 110.27%
• DSCR: 5.91
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $52,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4206 Patriot Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	2mo	$79,900	$66	75
2500 Centennial Rd Lot 240	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	2mo	$45,900	$36	69
4117 W Arlington Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	1mo	$49,900	$39	68
2500 Centennial Rd #232	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-12%)	6mo	$17,900	$18	67
4202 Patriot Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	11mo	$65,000	$53	64
4303 Patriot Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	4mo	$64,900	$51	62
2500 Centennial Rd #11	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	10mo	$12,000	$12	58
4755 British Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	1mo	$54,000	$44	58
4773 British Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	8mo	$115,000	$95	52
4731 British Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	11mo	$55,000	$45	50
5051 Redcoat Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	10mo	$56,000	$46	48
4539 Lafayette Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	12mo	$74,900	$59	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $78,003
• Equity at exit: $6,859

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.37×
• Total profit: $210,826
• Equity at exit: $3,977

Cash invested: $12,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$58 /mo · $690/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $1,184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $46,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,215	-5% $1,199	+0% $1,184	+5% $1,168	+10% $1,152
Rent	-10% $1,033	-5% $1,109	+0% $1,184	+5% $1,259	+10% $1,334
Rate	-1.0pp $1,207	-0.5pp $1,195	base $1,184	+0.5pp $1,172	+1.0pp $1,160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,500
• Closing costs: $1,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	22d	1	0.60mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	22d	6	0.93mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	22d	22	1.34mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $46,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $46,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $46,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $46,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $46,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $48,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $48,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $48,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $48,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $48,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $48,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $48,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $48,000 Active 18 DOM
19. 2022-06-22
    price $1,050
20. 2001-02-01
    soldstatus 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very clean, new shingles 7/99, large master bedroom with master bath w/ french door. 195 Skyline 16 x 80 $200.00 lot rent. Basement - NONE.

21. 2001-01-03
    listed $35,000 139-char remark

    Show marketing remark (139 chars)

    Very clean, new shingles 7/99, large master bedroom with master bath w/ french door. 195 Skyline 16 x 80 $200.00 lot rent. Basement - NONE.

22. 2000-07-14
    soldstatus 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    NEW WATER HEATER- WASHER/DRYER 1999-REFRIGERATOR & STOVE 1997-LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA SHEET ROCKED & INSULATED W/ NEW WINDOWS!CARPORT & STORAGE SHED HAVE TO BE REMOVED Basement - NONE.

23. 2000-06-01
    soldstatus
24. 2000-04-11
    listed $26,900
25. 2000-04-07
    soldstatus
26. 2000-04-03
    listed $10,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    NEW WATER HEATER- WASHER/DRYER 1999-REFRIGERATOR & STOVE 1997-LIVING ROOM & DINING AREA SHEET ROCKED & INSULATED W/ NEW WINDOWS!CARPORT & STORAGE SHED HAVE TO BE REMOVED Basement - NONE.

27. 2000-03-13
    listed $43,000
28. 2000-03-09
    soldstatus
29. 2000-03-01
    soldstatus
30. 2000-02-08
    soldstatus
31. 1999-12-28
    listed $14,900
32. 1999-12-06
    listed $26,000
33. 1999-12-03
    listed $23,900
34. 1999-11-17
    soldstatus
35. 1999-10-29
    soldstatus
36. 1999-09-28
    soldstatus
37. 1999-09-23
    listed $18,900
38. 1999-07-09
    soldstatus
39. 1999-06-16
    soldstatus
40. 1999-05-28
    soldstatus
41. 1999-05-20
    soldstatus
42. 1999-04-23
    listed $13,500
43. 1999-04-22
    listed $8,900
44. 1999-04-14
    listed $30,000
45. 1999-03-19
    soldstatus
46. 1999-03-12
    listed $35,500
47. 1999-03-12
    soldstatus
48. 1999-03-12
    listed $34,900
49. 1999-02-20
    listed $39,900
50. 1999-02-03
    listed $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,577
• − Property taxes: −$690
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$1,338
• Taxable income: $14,323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,438
• After-tax cash flow: $10,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-93.4% since first listed

101 events — show timeline

• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $1,050 RENT.
• 2001-02-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2001-01-03 Listed $35,000 GNMLS
• 2000-07-14 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-06-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-04-11 Listed $26,900 GNMLS
• 2000-04-07 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-04-03 Listed $10,000 GNMLS
• 2000-03-13 Listed $43,000 GNMLS
• 2000-03-09 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-03-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2000-02-08 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-12-28 Listed $14,900 GNMLS
• 1999-12-06 Listed $26,000 GNMLS
• 1999-12-03 Listed $23,900 GNMLS
• 1999-11-17 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-10-29 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-09-28 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-09-23 Listed $18,900 GNMLS
• 1999-07-09 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-06-16 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-05-28 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-05-20 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-04-23 Listed $13,500 GNMLS
• 1999-04-22 Listed $8,900 GNMLS
• 1999-04-14 Listed $30,000 GNMLS
• 1999-03-19 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-03-12 Listed $35,500 GNMLS
• 1999-03-12 Listed $34,900 GNMLS
• 1999-03-12 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-02-20 Listed $39,900 GNMLS
• 1999-02-03 Listed $37,500 GNMLS
• 1999-02-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-01-29 Listed $15,000 GNMLS
• 1999-01-27 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-12-14 Listed $6,800 GNMLS
• 1998-11-02 Listed $29,900 GNMLS
• 1998-09-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-07-31 Listed $16,000 GNMLS
• 1998-07-31 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-07-31 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-06-15 Listed $15,400 GNMLS
• 1998-05-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-04-14 Listed $13,500 GNMLS
• 1998-04-10 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-03-03 Listed $24,900 GNMLS
• 1998-02-19 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-01-27 Listed $14,900 GNMLS
• 1998-01-10 Listed $28,000 GNMLS
• 1997-12-31 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-11-14 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-10-31 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-09-26 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-09-08 Listed $18,500 GNMLS
• 1997-08-27 Listed $13,900 GNMLS
• 1997-07-26 Listed $16,900 GNMLS
• 1997-07-11 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-07-11 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-06-25 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-05-13 Listed $14,900 GNMLS
• 1997-05-12 Listed $13,900 GNMLS
• 1997-05-07 Listed $34,900 GNMLS
• 1997-05-03 Listed $39,900 GNMLS
• 1997-04-15 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-03-28 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-03-26 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-03-24 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-02-15 Listed $17,500 GNMLS
• 1997-02-08 Listed $29,900 GNMLS
• 1997-02-07 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1997-01-29 Listed $13,400 GNMLS
• 1996-12-04 Listed $6,500 GNMLS
• 1996-11-22 Listed $10,000 GNMLS
• 1996-11-14 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-09-27 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-09-20 Listed $17,000 GNMLS
• 1996-09-18 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-08-23 Listed $10,900 GNMLS
• 1996-08-23 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-07-18 Listed $8,900 GNMLS
• 1996-07-10 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-07-09 Listed $16,500 GNMLS
• 1996-05-20 Listed $24,900 GNMLS
• 1996-05-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-01-16 Listed $39,900 GNMLS
• 1995-07-17 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1995-06-07 Listed $15,900 GNMLS
• 1995-06-02 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1995-05-26 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1995-04-15 Listed $11,000 GNMLS
• 1995-04-05 Listed $6,000 GNMLS
• 1994-09-23 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1994-06-20 Listed $35,000 GNMLS
• 1994-05-06 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1994-03-31 Listed $12,500 GNMLS
• 1993-12-20 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1993-09-13 Listed $11,500 GNMLS
• 1993-06-10 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1993-04-27 Listed $16,000 GNMLS
• 1993-03-15 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1993-02-20 Listed $16,000 GNMLS