4204 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A · Hudson Bend, TX 78734

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · Condo public records · 534 Days on market

Built 1980 $209/sqft · 39% below area Est $370k · 39% under $300/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

Key facts

• Extra parking
• Quartz counters
• Recently updated

Tags

• PRIVATE SIDE YARD
• WOOD DECKING
• EXTRA PARKING
• RECENTLY UPDATED
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.5% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 534 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $225k implies a 321% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,513 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 534 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,000
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -39.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-57,425
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,127
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,383/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,454

Max offer price $157,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-318	+0% $-382	+5% $-446	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-538	-5% $-460	+0% $-382	+5% $-304	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-269	-0.5pp $-325	base $-382	+0.5pp $-440	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,415	$1.22	24d	1	0.24mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit D Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,415	$1.22	22d	1	0.24mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$1,600	$1.38	44d	1	0.24mi
3904 Hudson Bend Rd Unit A Austin, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,495	$1.29	22d	1	0.24mi
15303 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,400	$1.94	24d	1	0.47mi
15104 Texas St Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	804	$1,875	$2.33	44d	1	0.49mi
2918 Ranch to Market Road 620 Unit 172 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,995	$1.72	44d	1	0.89mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit Y194 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,195	$1.82	5d	1	0.95mi
2918 Ranch Road 620 N Unit V267 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,100	$1.81	44d	1	0.95mi
15216 Kevin Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	24d	1	0.97mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N Apt 272 Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1395	$2,195	$1.57	4d	1	0.99mi
16001 Awalt Dr Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,500	$2.48	44d	1	0.99mi
2918 Ranch Rd 620 N #265 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,100	$1.74	3d	1	1.00mi
16109 Awalt Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	1.07mi
3248 Brass Buttons Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,200	$1.78	24d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 534 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 533 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 532 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 531 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 529 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 525 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 524 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 523 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 520 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 519 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 518 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 517 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 516 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    price $225,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

15. 2026-01-19
    status Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

16. 2026-01-19
    price $250,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

17. 2026-01-10
    historical Active Under Contract 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

18. 2025-12-02
    price $265,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

19. 2025-09-26
    price $317,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

20. 2025-08-10
    price $327,000 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

21. 2024-12-31
    listed $350,000 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    A HIDDEN GEM THIS CONDO IS NESTLED IN A PARK LIKE SETTING WITH TOWERING SHADE TREES. YOU MUST COME INSIDE TO APPRECIATE THIS END UNIT WITH PRIVATE SIDE YARD WOOD DECKING AND THE SECURITY OF HAVING YOUR OWN GARAGE PLUS EXTRA PARKING. RECENTLY UPDATED WITH QUARTZ COUNTERS STAINLESS APPLIANCES, PLUS EXTRA UPGRADES

22. 2023-10-03
    historical $1,850
23. 2023-09-03
    listed $1,850
24. 2016-02-19
    soldstatus
25. 2009-03-31
    historical
26. 2008-09-27
    listed
27. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus
28. 2005-08-15
    soldstatus
29. 2005-07-12
    historical
30. 2005-05-09
    listed $98,500
31. 2005-01-20
    soldstatus
32. 1999-09-13
    soldstatus
33. 1999-09-10
    soldstatus
34. 1999-07-23
    historical
35. 1999-07-13
    historical
36. 1999-06-18
    listed
37. 1999-04-08
    listed $79,900
38. 1995-10-11
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,383 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,383 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,383
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$8,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hudson Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1006
• US rank: #17863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hudson Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+320.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-19 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-10 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $265,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $317,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-10 Price Changed $327,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-12-31 Listed $350,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-03 Rental Removed $1,850 ACTRIS
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent $1,850 ACTRIS
• 2016-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-03-31 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2008-09-27 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2005-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-15 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2005-07-12 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2005-05-09 Listed $98,500 Unlock MLS
• 2005-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-10 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 1999-07-23 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1999-07-13 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1999-06-18 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 1999-04-08 Listed $79,900 Unlock MLS
• 1995-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,383 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.