455 King Richard Dr · Chester, MA 01223

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 232 Days on market

Built 1968 0.50 ac lot Est $170k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable three season Challat in Sherwood Forest community. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Quick walk to the beach for non-motorboat activities and swimming.

Key facts

• Fieldstone fireplace
• Front porch
• Back deck

Tags

• FIELDSTONE FIREPLACE
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• UPPER LEVEL BALCONY
• PRIVATE SETTING
• FRONTAGE ON WALKER BROOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.0% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#91 in MA, #4,646 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Central Berkshire (rural): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #206 of 302 in MA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Becket Washington School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #421 of 938 statewide, top 48%, 100 students, 0% FRL); Nessacus Regional Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #175 of 305 statewide, top 58%, 345 students, 0% FRL); Wahconah Regional High (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #157 of 343 statewide, top 47%, 485 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 26% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Berkshire County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Berkshire County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $199k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,884
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
455 King Richard Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,404 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$121	99
358 Prince John Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,504 (+7%)	24mo	$32,000	$21	53
22 Little John Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (-2%)	11mo	$325,000	$236	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $119,070
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $342,067
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 01223

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,273/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-26
   price $199,000
3. 2025-09-05
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2006-07-03
   soldstatus $80,000 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Adorable three season Challat in Sherwood Forest community. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Quick walk to the beach for non-motorboat activities and swimming.

5. 2006-06-30
   soldstatus $80,000
6. 2006-06-01
   historical
7. 2006-01-21
   listed $99,900
8. 2005-06-27
   listed $99,900 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   Adorable three season Challat in Sherwood Forest community. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Quick walk to the beach for non-motorboat activities and swimming.

9. 2001-12-07
   soldstatus $80,000
10. 2001-12-06
    soldstatus $64,800
11. 2001-06-16
    listed $84,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,273
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,703
• − Management: −$1,703
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$318
• After-tax cash flow: $2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Berkshire
• NCES district ID: 2503390
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,145
• Composite: 34.8/100
• National rank: #5108
• State rank: #206 of 302 in MA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #4646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,588

Population outlook (Berkshire County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,723 people
• By 2030: 114,608 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 102,806 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 91,305 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 71,517 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 57,988 · -51.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berkshire

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.9) · D 68.9% · R 29.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 52.4pp · 2024: 39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.9 2020: D+47.1 2016: D+41.5 2012: D+53.7 2008: D+52.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.33%
• Current HPI: 305.8977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

+134.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — BCMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $199,000 BCMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $225,000 BCMLS
• 2006-07-03 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BCMLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-01 Listing Removed — BCMLS
• 2006-01-21 Listed $99,900 BCMLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $99,900 BCMLS
• 2001-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-06 Sold (MLS) $64,800 BCMLS
• 2001-06-16 Listed $84,800 BCMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,273 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.