Plan 1510 Modeled Plan · Winchester, CA 92596

$435,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Condo · 93 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Single-level floor plan above garage * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Private balcony * Engineered stone countertops at full baths * LED lighting * Granite kitchen countertops * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Walk-in shower
• Kitchen island

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• ENGINEERED STONE COUNTERTOPS
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $435,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $532,687.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $436k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-937 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $397k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $347k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$92k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,430 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,687
• List price: $435,990
• Delta: -18.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $220,335
• Equity at exit: $479,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $677,632
• Equity at exit: $1,034,894

Cash invested: $149,152 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,474 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,793
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$666 /mo · $7,990/yr
• Insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$730
• Net cashflow: $-937

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,660

Max offer price $397,162

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,172
• Closing costs: $15,981
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30816 Viper Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$3,249	$2.05	4d	1	0.58mi
30622 Dart Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1378	$4,300	$3.12	2d	1	0.62mi
30826 Grand Prix Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,850	$2.07	24d	1	0.64mi
30547 Operetta St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1567	$3,100	$1.98	18d	1	0.66mi
30812 Malibu Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,995	$2.18	24d	1	0.66mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	15d	1	0.82mi
29587 Winterstorm Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,195	$1.56	12d	1	0.86mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	1d	1	0.87mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	20d	1	0.89mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	7d	1	0.89mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.90mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	15d	1	0.91mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.92mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	20d	1	0.93mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	7d	1	0.95mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,269	$1.92	43d	1	0.96mi
29790 Cottonwood Cove Dr Menifee, CA	3.0	2.0	1979	$2,950	$1.49	1d	1	1.04mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1823	$3,195	$1.75	2d	1	1.35mi
29406 Grande Vista Ave Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2152	$3,350	$1.56	2d	1	1.36mi
32202 Prairie Crossing Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,950	$1.51	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,990 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,990 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,990 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,990 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $435,990 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $433,990 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $433,990 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $433,990 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $433,990 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $433,990 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $433,990 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $433,990 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $433,990 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $429,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    * Single-level floor plan above garage * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Private balcony * Engineered stone countertops at full baths * LED lighting * Granite kitchen countertops * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

15. 2026-04-09
    price $439,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    * Single-level floor plan above garage * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Private balcony * Engineered stone countertops at full baths * LED lighting * Granite kitchen countertops * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2026-04-03
    price $449,990 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    * Single-level floor plan above garage * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Private balcony * Engineered stone countertops at full baths * LED lighting * Granite kitchen countertops * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2026-03-17
    listed $459,990 Active 535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (535 chars)

    * Single-level floor plan above garage * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Private balcony * Engineered stone countertops at full baths * LED lighting * Granite kitchen countertops * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,839
• − Property taxes: −$7,990
• − Insurance: −$2,663
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,335
• − Management: −$3,335
• − Depreciation: −$15,496
• Taxable loss: −$20,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,032
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home in Winchester, CA, is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good ROI with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal.
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern appeal.
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and adds modern appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and adds modern appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $439,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $449,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Listed $459,990 Zillow