Plan 1510 Modeled Plan · Winchester, CA 92596

$412,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Townhouse · 236 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Single-level floor plan above garage * Walk-in shower at primary bath * Private balcony * Engineered stone countertops at full baths * LED lighting * Granite kitchen countertops * Open floor plan * Kitchen island * Dedicated laundry room * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Walk-in shower
• Kitchen island

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• ENGINEERED STONE COUNTERTOPS
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $412,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $543,618.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $413k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-907 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $361k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $361k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $360,763 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $543,618
• List price: $412,990
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31301 Arcara St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,469 (-3%)	12mo	$613,206	$417	54
31385 Arcara St	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,469 (-3%)	14mo	$497,052	$338	52
29215 Tourmaline	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,397 (-8%)	3mo	$490,000	$351	50
29375 Tourmaline	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,397 (-8%)	4mo	$489,700	$351	49
31289 ARCARA St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,397 (-8%)	16mo	$573,972	$411	44
29518 Marx Way	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,397 (-8%)	19mo	$506,500	$363	39
29519 Tourmaline Way	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,397 (-8%)	18mo	$499,999	$358	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $227,796
• Equity at exit: $489,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $697,418
• Equity at exit: $1,056,130

Cash invested: $152,213 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $476,722 ($284/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +26.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,851
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$680 /mo · $8,154/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$758
• Net cashflow: $-907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,755

Max offer price $412,403

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-531	-5% $-719	+0% $-907	+5% $-1,095	+10% $-1,282
Rent	-10% $-1,192	-5% $-1,049	+0% $-907	+5% $-764	+10% $-622
Rate	-1.0pp $-633	-0.5pp $-769	base $-907	+0.5pp $-1,048	+1.0pp $-1,191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $135,904
• Closing costs: $16,309
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30861 Rushing Water St Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	2076	$3,500	$1.69	0d	1	0.08mi
29343 Windy Willow Ln Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2083	$4,500	$2.16	0d	1	0.12mi
30872 Hawkscrest Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2227	$3,350	$1.50	0d	1	0.31mi
30783 Pony Express Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2239	$3,200	$1.43	0d	1	0.36mi
30851 Le Baron Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,245	$1.77	10d	1	0.38mi
30607 Cyclone Ave Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2056	$3,199	$1.56	75d	1	0.41mi
28798 Enclave Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,200	$1.74	18d	1	0.50mi
28798 Enclave Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,095	$1.69	3d	1	0.50mi
28743 Camaro Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2059	$3,300	$1.60	43d	1	0.50mi
30816 Viper Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$3,050	$1.93	2d	1	0.58mi
28635 Matador Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1775	$2,995	$1.69	114d	1	0.62mi
30622 Dart Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1378	$4,650	$3.37	2d	1	0.62mi
30826 Grand Prix Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,850	$2.07	165d	1	0.64mi
30547 Operetta St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1567	$3,100	$1.98	114d	1	0.66mi
30812 Malibu Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,995	$2.18	165d	1	0.66mi
29342 Marx Way Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,100	$2.11	72d	1	0.68mi
29502 Marx Way Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,000	$2.04	43d	1	0.69mi
29291 Mountain Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	21d	1	0.77mi
29291 Mountain Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	10d	1	0.77mi
29322 Leopard Wood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,499	$2.06	1d	1	0.80mi
29328 Leopard Wood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,569	$2.02	1d	1	0.80mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	155d	1	0.82mi
29439 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1858	$3,709	$2.00	51d	1	0.85mi
29587 Winterstorm Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,195	$1.56	153d	1	0.86mi
29422 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	91d	1	0.86mi
29422 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,419	$1.93	35d	1	0.86mi
29428 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.86mi
29428 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	88d	1	0.86mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	122d	1	0.87mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,379	$1.91	37d	1	0.87mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	131d	1	0.87mi
29394 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	929	$3,686	$3.97	0d	1	0.89mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	161d	1	0.89mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,379	$1.99	138d	1	0.89mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	161d	1	0.90mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	155d	1	0.91mi
29466 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	115d	1	0.92mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	161d	1	0.92mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	161d	1	0.93mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	148d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $412,990 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $412,990 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $412,990 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $412,990 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $412,990 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $412,990 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $412,990 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $412,990 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $412,990 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $412,990 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $412,990 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $412,990 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $412,990 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $412,990 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $412,990 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $412,990 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $412,990 Active 219 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $412,990 Active 218 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $412,990 Active 217 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $412,990 Active 216 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $412,990 Active 215 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $412,990 Active 214 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $412,990 Active 213 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $412,990 Active 212 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $412,990 Active 211 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $412,990 Active 210 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $412,990 Active 209 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $412,990 Active 208 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $412,990 Active 207 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $412,990 Active 206 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $412,990 Active 205 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $412,990 Active 204 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $412,990 Active 203 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $412,990 Active 202 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $412,990 Active 201 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $412,990 Active 200 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $412,990 Active 199 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    price $412,990 Active 198 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $427,990 Active 198 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $427,990 Active 197 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $427,990 Active 196 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $427,990 Active 195 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $427,990 Active 194 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $427,990 Active 192 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $427,990 Active 191 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $427,990 Active 190 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $427,990 Active 189 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $427,990 Active 188 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $427,990 Active 187 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $427,990 Active 186 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,451
• − Property taxes: −$8,154
• − Insurance: −$2,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,463
• − Management: −$3,463
• − Depreciation: −$15,814
• Taxable loss: −$20,773
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,985
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home in Winchester, CA, is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good ROI with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Smart security system — Enhances safety and adds modern appeal. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winchester Elementary Middle Rancho Viejo Middle F CA #277/498 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Tahquitz High F CA #777/1,170 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $429,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $439,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $449,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Listed $459,990 Zillow