2971 Pottsville Rd · Mackville, KY 40069

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 831 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Little cabin by a creek with easy access to Hwy 150. This one bedroom 1.5 bath cabin sits on a quiet road with a creek and wooded lot surrounding it. Use it for a weekend getaway or live there full time. Level area for an RV. Mature growth fruit trees. Wood burning rock fireplace indoor hot tub and lots of outdoor deck space. Enjoy the creek not far away. Has some unfinished projects to finish.

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Fire pit
• Wraparound deck

Tags

• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• SCENIC CREEK
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• FIRE PIT
• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS
• DETACHED CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Stone foundation; Built area 831
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Shed(s); Secluded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Crawl space basement; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($592/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#319 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington County (rural): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #50 of 165 in KY (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington County Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 460 students, 63% FRL); Washington County Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #64 of 217 statewide, top 30%, 203 students, 64% FRL); Washington County High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 521 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $85,945 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-12,920
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-7,287
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40069

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $797

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $77	+0% $49	+5% $21	+10% $-7
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $15	+0% $49	+5% $83	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $75	base $49	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $99,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$21/yr (+$2/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$825
• − Management: −$825
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$1,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$261
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington County
• NCES district ID: 2105760
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $43,210
• Composite: 31.33/100
• National rank: #5999
• State rank: #50 of 165 in KY

Livability — Mackville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #15282

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,802

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,884 people
• By 2030: 13,241 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 13,877 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 14,302 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 15,476 · +20.1%
• By 2100: 15,160 · +17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 8% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.2% · R 74.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+35.0 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.67%
• Current HPI: 227.5606
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+482.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $99,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) $77,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-06-16 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2023-05-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2023-05-12 Listed $95,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-30 Sold (MLS) — CKAR
• 2017-09-09 Listed $39,500 CKAR
• 2016-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.