8147 Willow St · Windsor, CA 95492

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 1988 $112/sqft · 21% below area Est $190k · 21% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laundry room
• Freshly painted

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED
• NEW CARPETS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN FEATURES
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.0% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.78%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,500
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -20.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8107 B St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	82
612 Aspen Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-3%)	11mo	$215,000	$164	81
610 Aspen Way	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (+0%)	12mo	$169,000	$126	80
601 Aspen Way	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$179,900	$139	79
8317 Blue Spruce Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$135,000	$94	71
8109 B St	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	3mo	$199,000	$173	66
1032 Maple Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (+10%)	8mo	$385,000	$259	65
1133 Chinaberry Way	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$279,000	$194	65
702 Sequoia St	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	12mo	$170,000	$111	57
229 Wade Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	16mo	$285,000	$212	54
153 Bari Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-8%)	3mo	$268,620	$217	52
237 Wade Dr Unit Sp 46	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-8%)	14mo	$312,000	$253	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $75,511
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $194,401
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,294 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $1,566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	14d	1	0.18mi
172 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,650	$2.70	14d	1	0.25mi
10 3rd St Unit 10 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	44d	1	0.40mi
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	44d	1	0.62mi
185 Johnson St Windsor, CA	3.0	2.5	1796	$3,300	$1.84	44d	1	0.63mi
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	44d	1	0.76mi
904 Bond Pl Windsor, CA	3.0	3.0	1587	$1,275	$0.80	44d	1	0.94mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$4,395	$5.66	8d	14	0.99mi
9631 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 9631 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,375	$2.27	21d	1	1.19mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    status Active 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

18. 2026-05-07
    historical Contingent (Show) 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

19. 2026-04-23
    status Active 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

20. 2026-04-06
    historical Contingent (Show) 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

21. 2026-03-25
    price $154,900 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

22. 2026-02-23
    listed $159,900 Active 1176-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

    Just reduced to $154,900 so get it now! Great low price for this nice home. Just Freshly painted on inside makes it look so fresh! Brand new carpets throughout home is so welcoming. Discover comfort and convenience in this delightful 3 bed, 2 bath mfg. home in Windsor Senior Mobile Country Club. Built in 1988, this home has over 1300 sq. ft., very spacious open floor plan from kitchen to dining to living room space. Kitchen features a dishwasher, full gas range, large refrigerator, microwave, and plenty of cabinets for storage. Adjacent to the kitchen is the laundry room complete with a washer and dryer, and a back door to the carport. Outside the back door is the carport with space for 2 cars to park. The home comes with a shed for more storage. This Park offers a clubhouse with a huge meeting room, library, swimming pool, a separate laundry room, and plenty of places to visit with your neighbors. WMCC is conveniently located near the Windsor Town Greene where there are plenty of shops, restaurants, and markets and free weekly concerts. This home is priced right at this low price, and ready for you to move right in and start enjoying the Windsor lifestyle.

23. 2025-10-31
    status Active
24. 2025-10-29
    historical Contingent (Show)
25. 2025-08-09
    status Active
26. 2025-08-05
    historical Contingent (Show)
27. 2025-07-28
    status Active
28. 2025-07-06
    historical Contingent (Show)
29. 2025-06-12
    price $159,900
30. 2025-04-14
    price $169,000
31. 2025-02-26
    price $179,900
32. 2025-01-29
    price $184,900
33. 2024-11-15
    price $194,900
34. 2024-08-10
    price $209,900
35. 2024-06-09
    price $214,900
36. 2024-05-08
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,162
• − Management: −$3,162
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $17,446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,187
• After-tax cash flow: $14,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-29.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $154,900 BAREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $159,900 BAREIS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-10-29 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2025-08-09 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-08-05 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2025-07-28 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-07-06 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $159,900 BAREIS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $169,000 BAREIS
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $179,900 BAREIS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $184,900 BAREIS
• 2024-11-15 Price Changed $194,900 BAREIS
• 2024-08-10 Price Changed $209,900 BAREIS
• 2024-06-09 Price Changed $214,900 BAREIS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $220,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $212 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.