220 S Madera Ave Spc 10 · Kerman, CA 93630

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1980 $59/sqft · at area comps Est $90k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained mobile home in Kerman featuring a newer roof, newer interior paint and updated flooring. The kitchen opens up to a large dining and living room. The are three mini-splits in the living room, guest bedroom, and primary bedroom. There is also a flex-room that can be used as storage, an office, or a workout room.

Key facts

• Flex-room
• Newer roof
• Updated flooring

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER INTERIOR PAINT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE DINING AND LIVING ROOM
• THREE MINI-SPLITS
• FLEX-ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.2% in Kerman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#802 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Kerman Unified (town): math 21% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #347 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.43%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $90,000
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 S Madera #95	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$90,000	$63	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $32,826
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $89,704
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93630

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-04-11
   price $90,000 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained mobile home in Kerman featuring a newer roof, newer interior paint and updated flooring. The kitchen opens up to a large dining and living room. The are three mini-splits in the living room, guest bedroom, and primary bedroom. There is also a flex-room that can be used as storage, an office, or a workout room.

3. 2026-02-17
   price $100,000 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained mobile home in Kerman featuring a newer roof, newer interior paint and updated flooring. The kitchen opens up to a large dining and living room. The are three mini-splits in the living room, guest bedroom, and primary bedroom. There is also a flex-room that can be used as storage, an office, or a workout room.

4. 2026-01-01
   listed $110,000 Active 343-char remark

   Show marketing remark (343 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained mobile home in Kerman featuring a newer roof, newer interior paint and updated flooring. The kitchen opens up to a large dining and living room. The are three mini-splits in the living room, guest bedroom, and primary bedroom. There is also a flex-room that can be used as storage, an office, or a workout room.

5. 2025-05-09
   listed $90,000 Active
6. 2022-04-25
   soldstatus $75,000 Sold
7. 2022-03-30
   status Pending
8. 2022-02-24
   price $75,000
9. 2022-01-28
   status Active
10. 2022-01-28
    price $85,000
11. 2022-01-18
    status Pending
12. 2021-12-23
    status Active
13. 2021-12-03
    status Pending
14. 2021-11-13
    listed $78,000 Active
15. 2017-10-20
    soldstatus $30,000 Sold
16. 2017-10-03
    status Pending
17. 2017-03-10
    historical
18. 2017-02-17
    status Pending
19. 2017-01-17
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,913
• After-tax cash flow: $7,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerman Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619490
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,953
• Composite: 25.97/100
• National rank: #7326
• State rank: #347 of 517 in CA

Livability — Kerman

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #802
• US rank: #22787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kerman, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,352

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 30% White 13% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 58% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.49%
• Current HPI: 340.4655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $90,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $100,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $110,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $90,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2022-04-25 Sold (MLS) $75,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2022-03-30 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2022-02-24 Price Changed $75,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2022-01-28 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2022-01-28 Price Changed $85,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2022-01-18 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-12-23 Relisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-12-03 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2021-11-13 Listed $78,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-10-20 Sold (MLS) $30,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-10-03 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-03-10 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-02-17 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-01-17 Listed $30,000 FRESNOMLS