215 Geronimo · Quitman, TX 75783

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2021 $150/sqft · 11% above area Est $122k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath home in Holiday Village of Lake Fork. This property offers access to all Holiday Village amenities, including a private boat ramp, clubhouse, community pool, and additional neighborhood features. Convenient floor plan with comfortable living spaces, ideal for full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Enjoy the benefits of lake community living while remaining close to downtown Quitman and local conveniences.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Private boat ramp

Tags

• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• LAKE COMMUNITY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($700/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Quitman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in TX, #3,504 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Quitman ISD (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,069
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -1.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
824 Holiday Village Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	896 (+12%)	11mo	$164,900	$184	62
161 Pillsbury Cir	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	7mo	$190,000	$264	61
445 Comanche	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	850 (+6%)	14mo	$104,900	$123	58
679 Indian Gap	0.67mi	2/1.0	750 (-6%)	21mo	$140,000	$187	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-15,657
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,626
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75783

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,881/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $119,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    price $119,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath home in Holiday Village of Lake Fork. This property offers access to all Holiday Village amenities, including a private boat ramp, clubhouse, community pool, and additional neighborhood features. Convenient floor plan with comfortable living spaces, ideal for full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Enjoy the benefits of lake community living while remaining close to downtown Quitman and local conveniences.

16. 2026-03-31
    price $119,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath home in Holiday Village of Lake Fork. This property offers access to all Holiday Village amenities, including a private boat ramp, clubhouse, community pool, and additional neighborhood features. Convenient floor plan with comfortable living spaces, ideal for full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Enjoy the benefits of lake community living while remaining close to downtown Quitman and local conveniences.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $124,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath home in Holiday Village of Lake Fork. This property offers access to all Holiday Village amenities, including a private boat ramp, clubhouse, community pool, and additional neighborhood features. Convenient floor plan with comfortable living spaces, ideal for full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Enjoy the benefits of lake community living while remaining close to downtown Quitman and local conveniences.

18. 2026-02-27
    listed $124,900 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath home in Holiday Village of Lake Fork. This property offers access to all Holiday Village amenities, including a private boat ramp, clubhouse, community pool, and additional neighborhood features. Convenient floor plan with comfortable living spaces, ideal for full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Enjoy the benefits of lake community living while remaining close to downtown Quitman and local conveniences.

19. 2026-02-11
    listed $130,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bed, 2 bath home in Holiday Village of Lake Fork. This property offers access to all Holiday Village amenities, including a private boat ramp, clubhouse, community pool, and additional neighborhood features. Convenient floor plan with comfortable living spaces, ideal for full-time residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity. Enjoy the benefits of lake community living while remaining close to downtown Quitman and local conveniences.

20. 2021-09-08
    historical
21. 2021-05-03
    soldstatus
22. 2021-04-29
    listed $89,900 Active
23. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus
24. 2000-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,881 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,881
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$298
• After-tax cash flow: $998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,081
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #5063
• State rank: #381 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quitman

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3504

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,011

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.83%
• Current HPI: 234.4883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $119,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $124,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2021-09-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-29 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2019-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+66.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,881 · +22.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.