530 S Willow Ave · Sugar Creek, MO 64053

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1925 8,295 sqft lot Est $157k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house need some work but not beyond repair, could rent for 650 to 725 mo, would make a nicely laid out family house. Could be liveable now. Work shed is a mans dream and of high quality. Utilities on Owner Agent

Key facts

• 8,295 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 3 days

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• OFF STREET PARKING OPTIONS
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL SCHOOLS
• MINUTES AWAY FROM LOCAL PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees; No maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Bungalow style
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; About 101 years old
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 64 x 130 (8,295 sq ft); Not in a flood plain

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on the first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Bungalow floor plan; Carpet flooring; Has basement (Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.2% in Sugar Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#261 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, commute B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairmount Elem. (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 312 students, 82% FRL); Clifford H. Nowlin Middle (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #342 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 875 students, 80% FRL); Van Horn High (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #472 of 521 statewide, top 91%, 1,047 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 58% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $120k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,867 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.91%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 S Hawthorne Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,178 (+2%)	2mo	$159,000	$135	76
536 S Evanston Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (-1%)	0mo	$140,000	$122	70
10531 E 9th St S	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,175 (+1%)	2mo	$180,000	$153	67
10143 E Golf Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,135 (-2%)	0mo	$119,900	$106	66
573 S Crescent Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,154 (-0%)	4mo	$120,000	$104	61
10804 Felton St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,063 (-8%)	2mo	$138,500	$130	61
823 S Huttig Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,052 (-9%)	2mo	$76,000	$72	54
11214 E 10th St S	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (+8%)	2mo	$210,000	$168	43
115 N Arlington Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,046 (-10%)	2mo	$169,000	$162	40
11225 Felton St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+12%)	2mo	$299,000	$230	36
11100 E 11th St S	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (+14%)	2mo	$190,000	$144	36
578 S Oxford Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (-15%)	2mo	$89,000	$90	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $79,342
• Equity at exit: $108,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $222,467
• Equity at exit: $232,939

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64053

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $469/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $255	+0% $221	+5% $187	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $174	+0% $221	+5% $268	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $252	base $221	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10104 E Golf Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,395	$1.16	16d	1	0.43mi
10561 E Lake Dr Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.47mi
10522 E 10th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,099	$1.08	25d	1	0.48mi
1109 S Appleton Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	18d	1	0.55mi
600 S Glenwood Ave Unit I Independence, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$695	$0.99	45d	1	0.69mi
600 S Glenwood Ave Unit F Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	22d	1	0.69mi
578 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	0d	1	0.72mi
576 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1098	$1,400	$1.28	45d	1	0.72mi
9528 E Winner Rd Independence, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0	730	$999	$1.37	45d	1	0.76mi
11500 E Anderson St Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,599	$1.33	19d	1	0.80mi
100 S Oxford Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,425	$1.25	46d	1	0.83mi
11601 E US Highway 24 Apt DA Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.85mi
1425 S Northern Blvd Independence, MO	3.0	1.5	1275	$1,200	$0.94	9d	1	0.87mi
1138 S Glenwood Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,095	$0.93	22d	1	0.87mi
182 Novak St Sugar Creek, MO	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	19d	1	0.91mi
10119 E Winner Rd Unit 2 Independence, MO	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,045	$1.04	23d	1	1.02mi
1712 S Ash Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$945	$1.18	45d	1	1.06mi
1712 S Ash Ave Unit 1714-3 Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$895	$1.28	25d	1	1.06mi
124 S Forest Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1092	$999	$0.91	0d	1	1.24mi
10714 E 19th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1010	$895	$0.89	5d	1	1.25mi
11616 E 16th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,125	$1.11	45d	1	1.29mi
8705 E Smart Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.36mi
1810 S Vermont Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$948	$1.00	45d	1	1.37mi
10817 E 19th Ter S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,801	$1.26	18d	1	1.37mi
10323 E 20th St S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $469 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 148.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$469
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $709
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independence 30
• NCES district ID: 2915480
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,843
• Composite: 27.04/100
• National rank: #7054
• State rank: #252 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sugar Creek

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #12484

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Creek, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 3,547
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 6,775
• Household income: $47,285
• Rent vs Own: 47.3% rent · 52.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 330.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.69%
• Current HPI: 347.9512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+566.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $119,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $27,771 Public Records
• 2013-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-21 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-28 Listed $18,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $469 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.