7843 Joe Lynn Trl · Central, LA 70726

$279,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,118 sqft · SingleFamily · 144 Days on market

Built 2022 7,383 sqft lot $132/sqft · 7% below area Est $302k · 7% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is three years young. It is a spacious one-story home with an open floor plan and a large island open to the family room and breakfast area. Great for entertaining and making lasting memories. This home boasts lots of room for any family size with 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features all stainless-steel kitchen appliances with gas range, and a corner pantry. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, but carpet is in all of the bedrooms. The primary bath has a separate shower, dual vanities and a garden tub. Please get with your agent and schedule your showings asap

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Corner pantry
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CORNER PANTRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.3% in Central — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#25 in LA, #4,761 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 976 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $211,540 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,406
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -7.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7651 Magnolia Beach Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,998 (-6%)	23mo	$247,000	$124	50
32435 Quail Rdg	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (-6%)	16mo	$305,000	$153	45
7557 Colonial Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,875 (-12%)	13mo	$310,000	$165	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,328
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-60,189
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 976
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,176/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,389

Max offer price $241,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-137	+0% $-216	+5% $-295	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-300	+0% $-216	+5% $-132	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-145	base $-216	+0.5pp $-289	+1.0pp $-362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32720 Carolee Cir Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1904	$1,850	$0.97	20d	1	0.53mi
32744 Carolee Cir Denham Springs, LA	5.0	3.0	2130	$1,850	$0.87	15d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $279,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $389,900 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    This home is three years young. It is a spacious one-story home with an open floor plan and a large island open to the family room and breakfast area. Great for entertaining and making lasting memories. This home boasts lots of room for any family size with 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features all stainless-steel kitchen appliances with gas range, and a corner pantry. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, but carpet is in all of the bedrooms. The primary bath has a separate shower, dual vanities and a garden tub. Please get with your agent and schedule your showings asap

17. 2026-04-30
    price $389,900 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    This home is three years young. It is a spacious one-story home with an open floor plan and a large island open to the family room and breakfast area. Great for entertaining and making lasting memories. This home boasts lots of room for any family size with 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features all stainless-steel kitchen appliances with gas range, and a corner pantry. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, but carpet is in all of the bedrooms. The primary bath has a separate shower, dual vanities and a garden tub. Please get with your agent and schedule your showings asap

18. 2026-01-25
    listed $314,900 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    This home is three years young. It is a spacious one-story home with an open floor plan and a large island open to the family room and breakfast area. Great for entertaining and making lasting memories. This home boasts lots of room for any family size with 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features all stainless-steel kitchen appliances with gas range, and a corner pantry. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, but carpet is in all of the bedrooms. The primary bath has a separate shower, dual vanities and a garden tub. Please get with your agent and schedule your showings asap

19. 2026-01-25
    listed $314,900 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    This home is three years young. It is a spacious one-story home with an open floor plan and a large island open to the family room and breakfast area. Great for entertaining and making lasting memories. This home boasts lots of room for any family size with 5 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The kitchen features all stainless-steel kitchen appliances with gas range, and a corner pantry. Luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas, but carpet is in all of the bedrooms. The primary bath has a separate shower, dual vanities and a garden tub. Please get with your agent and schedule your showings asap

20. 2022-12-15
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2022-12-15
    soldstatus $267,900
22. 2022-11-12
    price $291,295
23. 2022-11-01
    listed $295,000
24. 2022-11-01
    listed $295,000
25. 2022-08-12
    listed $301,295 Active
26. 2022-08-12
    listed $291,295

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,176 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,176 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,176
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,807
• After-tax cash flow: $-785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Central

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #4761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 10,403
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $389,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $389,900 GSREIN
• 2026-01-25 Listed $314,900 GSREIN
• 2026-01-25 Listed $314,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-12-15 Sold (MLS) $267,900 GSREIN
• 2022-12-15 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $291,295 GBRMLS
• 2022-11-01 Listed $295,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-11-01 Listed $295,000 GSREIN
• 2022-08-12 Listed $291,295 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-08-12 Listed $301,295 GBRMLS

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,176 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.