0075 Prospector Rd Unit 8404-1 Winter Interest · Aspen, CO 81611

$33,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,422 sqft · Condo · 869 Days on market

Built 2001 $24/sqft · 54% below area $1899/mo HOA · 23% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Winter fractional interest at Ritz Carlton Club in Aspen Highlands, right at the base of some of the best skiing in North America! Unit 8404 is a desirable top floor, 2 bedroom unit with views of the Courtyard. With Interest #1, you receive 2 consecutive winter weeks, a summer week, and a float week every year. Upcoming dates are: April 6 - 20, 2024, May 25 - June 1, 2024, December 7 - December 21, 2024, and June 7- June 14, 2025. Christmas week in 2025: December 13 - December 27. Enjoy exchange privileges with other Ritz Carlton Residence Clubs and partnerships with other vacation clubs and affiliations like 3rd Home and Marriott.

Key facts

• $1,899 HOA
• Parking
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($52k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,214/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($232 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 869 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $29,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 869 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 24.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 162.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 557.63%
• DSCR: 25.81
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,077
• List price: $33,500
• Delta: -53.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.31×
• Total profit: $340,563
• Equity at exit: $30,179

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 96.38×
• Total profit: $894,699
• Equity at exit: $65,083

Cash invested: $9,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$1,899
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,725
• Net cashflow: $4,359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,697

Max offer price $33,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,375
• Closing costs: $1,005
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,899 · $22,788/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $33,500 Active 869 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $33,500 Active 868 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $33,500 Active 867 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $33,500 Active 866 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $33,500 Active 865 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $33,500 Active 863 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $33,500 Active 862 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,500 Active 859 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,500 Active 858 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $33,500 Active 857 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $33,500 Active 854 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $33,500 Active 852 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $33,500 Active 851 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $33,500 Active 850 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $33,500 Active 849 DOM
16. 2025-12-08
    price $33,500 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Winter fractional interest at Ritz Carlton Club in Aspen Highlands, right at the base of some of the best skiing in North America! Unit 8404 is a desirable top floor, 2 bedroom unit with views of the Courtyard. With Interest #1, you receive 2 consecutive winter weeks, a summer week, and a float week every year. Upcoming dates are: April 6 - 20, 2024, May 25 - June 1, 2024, December 7 - December 21, 2024, and June 7- June 14, 2025. Christmas week in 2025: December 13 - December 27. Enjoy exchange privileges with other Ritz Carlton Residence Clubs and partnerships with other vacation clubs and affiliations like 3rd Home and Marriott.

17. 2025-10-02
    price $45,000 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Winter fractional interest at Ritz Carlton Club in Aspen Highlands, right at the base of some of the best skiing in North America! Unit 8404 is a desirable top floor, 2 bedroom unit with views of the Courtyard. With Interest #1, you receive 2 consecutive winter weeks, a summer week, and a float week every year. Upcoming dates are: April 6 - 20, 2024, May 25 - June 1, 2024, December 7 - December 21, 2024, and June 7- June 14, 2025. Christmas week in 2025: December 13 - December 27. Enjoy exchange privileges with other Ritz Carlton Residence Clubs and partnerships with other vacation clubs and affiliations like 3rd Home and Marriott.

18. 2024-02-01
    listed $50,000 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Winter fractional interest at Ritz Carlton Club in Aspen Highlands, right at the base of some of the best skiing in North America! Unit 8404 is a desirable top floor, 2 bedroom unit with views of the Courtyard. With Interest #1, you receive 2 consecutive winter weeks, a summer week, and a float week every year. Upcoming dates are: April 6 - 20, 2024, May 25 - June 1, 2024, December 7 - December 21, 2024, and June 7- June 14, 2025. Christmas week in 2025: December 13 - December 27. Enjoy exchange privileges with other Ritz Carlton Residence Clubs and partnerships with other vacation clubs and affiliations like 3rd Home and Marriott.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,877
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,886
• − Management: −$7,886
• − HOA: −$22,788
• − Depreciation: −$975
• Taxable income: $56,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,558
• After-tax cash flow: $38,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-33.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $33,500 AGMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $45,000 AGMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $50,000 AGMLS