510 Duterrow Rd SE #4 · Lacey, WA 98513

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1983 $104/sqft · 30% above area Est $100k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy living in the privately owned Loncar all-ages community! This beautifully fully updated 3-bedroom, 2 full bath manufactured home offers comfort, convenience, & affordability all in one package. Located at 510 Duterrow Rd SE Unit #4 in Olympia, this move-in ready home shines with thoughtful upgrades, spacious living areas, & a highly desirable floor plan. Step inside & immediately notice the vaulted ceilings, expansive living room flows seamlessly into the dining area & updated kitchen. Updated windows allow natural light to pour in with neutral paint selections & modern finishes. The kitchen with updated cabinetry offering abundant storage, genero

Key facts

• Great yard space
• Newer roof
• Updated windows

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• NEWER ROOF
• UPDATED FURNACE
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• GREAT YARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains on site
• Financial info: Accepts Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Located in Loncar mobile home park with about 40 homes; Pets not allowed; Land lease $775/month

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: City of Lacey water; PSE power; Community septic
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Tie-down foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Forced air cooling; Wood-burning energy source option
• Interior features: Fireplace; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.01%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,893
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 30.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Duterrow Rd SE #34	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-5%)	9mo	$40,000	$34	80
422 Dutterow Rd SE	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	11mo	$455,000	$339	74
510 Duterrow Rd SE #32	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	17mo	$125,000	$93	68
510 Duterrow Rd SE #13	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	16mo	$100,000	$89	66
9101 Steilacoom Rd SE #88	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-10%)	15mo	$120,000	$107	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $45,571
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $128,241
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98513

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,307 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $1,031

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,104	-5% $1,068	+0% $1,031	+5% $994	+10% $957
Rent	-10% $848	-5% $940	+0% $1,031	+5% $1,122	+10% $1,213
Rate	-1.0pp $1,096	-0.5pp $1,064	base $1,031	+0.5pp $997	+1.0pp $963

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Copper Wood Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,742	$1.54	5d	1	0.48mi
220 River Ridge Dr SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,850	$2.36	14d	3	0.51mi
105 Newberry Ln SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,243	$2.35	0d	10	0.53mi
9320 Windsor Ln NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,181	$2.24	0d	11	0.59mi
9129 Skokomish Way NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,650	$1.82	21d	1	0.61mi
8675 Litt Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$2,245	$2.69	44d	19	0.75mi
8675 Litt Dr SE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$2,197	$2.76	5d	25	0.75mi
1419 Mamook Ct NE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,095	$1.84	14d	1	0.80mi
1136 Pinedrop Loop SE Olympia, WA	3.0	1.5	1352	$2,400	$1.78	44d	1	0.82mi
8717 Wallingford Ln NE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,425	$2.02	44d	1	0.83mi
8515 Litt Dr SE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$2,075	$2.60	44d	25	0.90mi
1404 Brittany Ln NE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,133	$2.25	0d	10	0.94mi
317 Trailblazer St SE Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,850	$1.78	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$596/yr (+$50/mo · 87.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,215
• − Management: −$2,215
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $10,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,609
• After-tax cash flow: $9,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,017
• Household income: $113,053
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -377.44%
• Current HPI: 337.436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $129,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $677 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.