407 N Files St · Itasca, TX 76055

$149,997

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1970 5,793 sqft lot $117/sqft · 10% below area Est $166k · 10% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Workshop

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.7% in Itasca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,997 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,158
• List price: $149,997
• Delta: -9.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 S College St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (-4%)	9mo	$99,999	$81	64
403 E Adams St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,278 (-0%)	22mo	$269,900	$211	61
301 S Lamar St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (-5%)	5mo	$244,900	$201	60
103 S Hooks St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+10%)	12mo	$282,000	$199	54
604 S Aquilla St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-5%)	1mo	$245,000	$202	52
303 S Lamar	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (-5%)	19mo	$269,999	$221	49
705 E South St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+11%)	10mo	$214,900	$150	46
205 E South St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,462 (+14%)	7mo	$219,900	$150	41
112 Grayson Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-10%)	7mo	$239,900	$208	37
114 Don Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+8%)	15mo	$239,900	$174	37
106 Don Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+9%)	13mo	$225,000	$161	36
104 Don Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+9%)	14mo	$225,000	$161	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $102,715
• Equity at exit: $135,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $285,975
• Equity at exit: $291,411

Cash invested: $41,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76055

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,947/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,280

Max offer price $149,997

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,499
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 E Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	43d	1	0.44mi
106 W Adams St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	43d	1	0.45mi
202 E Henderson St Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,750	$1.18	11d	1	0.47mi
111 Minnie Dr Itasca, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,775	$1.42	43d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,997 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,997 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,997 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,997 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,997 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,997 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,997 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,997 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,997 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,997 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,997 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,997 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,997 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,997 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $149,997 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

17. 2026-05-04
    historical Active Option Contract 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

18. 2026-02-07
    price $155,000 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

19. 2025-10-10
    price $159,995 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

20. 2025-09-06
    listed $165,000 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Small-town home! This little 1284 square foot property has 2 large bedrooms, 2 very nice size bathrooms in which primary has a large walk-in closet, a 15 x 19 living area with large windows, and a great size dining room kitchen with built in wood cabinets and pantry and separate laundry area. It has a terrific 5 x 16 covered patio in front to enjoy that morning coffee and watch the kids walk to school and a 10 x 20 covered patio in back for those family events. This property offers a 10 x 25 workshop that could be transformed into a terrific in-law suite or she shed. Don't miss the opportunity to make this yours! Buyer and buyer's agent will need to verify all information including but not limited to measurements. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

21. 2025-05-30
    historical
22. 2025-02-27
    price $162,000
23. 2024-11-21
    price $164,000
24. 2024-11-14
    listed $174,900 Active
25. 2017-05-19
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2017-04-29
    status Pending
27. 2017-04-24
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2017-03-13
    price $59,900
29. 2017-02-17
    status Active
30. 2017-02-10
    historical Active Option Contract
31. 2016-12-27
    listed $69,900 Active
32. 2009-11-17
    soldstatus
33. 2007-03-01
    soldstatus
34. 2000-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,947 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$66/mo · 41.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,947
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$396
• After-tax cash flow: $3,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Itasca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824480
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,224
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #7499
• State rank: #636 of 826 in TX

Livability — Itasca

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #14977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Itasca, TX
• City population: 3,719
• Population (ZIP): 3,719

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.37%
• Current HPI: 264.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $149,997 NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $159,995 NTREIS
• 2025-09-06 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $162,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $164,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-14 Listed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2017-05-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-04-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-04-24 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2017-03-13 Price Changed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2017-02-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2017-02-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-12-27 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2009-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,947 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.