8133 Oak Ave · Semmes, AL 36575

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1990 0.52 ac lot $125/sqft · 15% below area Est $245k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and major roadways while still offering a more peaceful setting, this property checks many of the boxes Buyers are searching for — brick home, fenced yard, spacious lot, large kitchen/breakfast area, and affordable price point. Located in a USDA eligible area, qualified Buyers may be able to obtain 100% financing with $0 down payment. Buyer to verify eligibility with lender. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,672 square feet of living space with a spacious living room, oversized kitchen with lots countertop space, large dining area, and a generously sized laundry room. The fenced backyard offers plenty of room for pets,

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1990

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for 4 vehicles; Driveway; Level driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available (110V and 220V); Natural gas available; Water available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: Crestwood Estates; View available
• Construction: Brick 4 sides construction; Built in 1990; Slab foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Back yard fencing; Chain link fence; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Breakfast bar; Stained cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Brick; Ceramic tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allentown Elementary School (math 31% / reading 59%, grade D-, #169 of 627 statewide, top 27%, 776 students, 53% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $215k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,214
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -12.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3375 Shenandoah Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-2%)	1mo	$229,900	$136	86
3435 Shenandoah Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,658 (-4%)	3mo	$210,000	$127	78
8235 BLUE RIDGE Pl	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,926 (+12%)	1mo	$260,000	$135	70
3325 Shenandoah Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-11%)	7mo	$235,000	$153	67
3224 Dubose Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-12%)	3mo	$237,000	$156	66
3281 Dubose Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-6%)	14mo	$225,000	$139	66
3381 Dubose Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,566 (-9%)	10mo	$226,000	$144	62
3082 Sasanqua Cir W	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-1%)	19mo	$255,000	$150	59
3220 Macarson Cir	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (-3%)	3mo	$275,000	$164	59
2980 Kissi Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-11%)	13mo	$240,000	$156	47
3025 Sasanqua Cir S	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,849 (+7%)	20mo	$265,000	$143	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-39,864
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,501
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $540/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,598

Max offer price $201,383

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3475 Denmark Rd Unit A Mobile, AL	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $215,000 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $225,000 1198-char remark
19. 2026-05-06
    listed $240,000 Active 1198-char remark
20. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $124,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $540 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 63.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$540
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Semmes, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+72.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $215,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $225,000 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-06 Listed $240,000 GCMLS AL
• 2018-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $124,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $540 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.