241 E Melton Park Dr · Mercedes, TX 78570

$76,629

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 708 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 305 Days on market

Built 1981 6,695 sqft lot $108/sqft · 5% above area Est $73k · 5% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED! Discover this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home in Mercedes, TX, offering a cozy retreat on a generous 6,693 Sq. Ft. lot. Step inside to find a welcoming living area and a well-appointed kitchen, perfect for comfortable living. While the home may require some TLC and maintenance, envision the possibilities as you transform it into a magnificent property with the right touches. Enjoy the convenience of an extended driveway and a spacious backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and leisure activities. Benefit from the strategic location, providing easy access to Highway 2. With some love and attention, this home has the potential to become your dream oasis. This home is being sold AS IS but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Spacious backyard
• Extended driveway

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• GENEROUS LOT
• WELCOMING LIVING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.4% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 462 students, 96% FRL); Sgt William G Harrell Middle (math 6% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 451 students, 95% FRL); Mercedes H S (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,591 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 974 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 393 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($530 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,433 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.84%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,915
• List price: $76,629
• Delta: 5.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $33,645
• Equity at exit: $41,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $87,176
• Equity at exit: $69,415

Cash invested: $21,456 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$402
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,004/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $76,629

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $305	+0% $283	+5% $261	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $243	+0% $283	+5% $323	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $303	base $283	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,157
• Closing costs: $2,299
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,629 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $76,629 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,629 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,629 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,629 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,629 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,629 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,629 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $76,629 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $76,629 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,629 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $76,629 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $76,629 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,629 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,629 Active 286 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,629 Active 285 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,629 Active 284 DOM
18. 2025-08-20
    listed $76,629 Active 977-char remark

    Show marketing remark (977 chars)

    JUST LISTED! Discover this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home in Mercedes, TX, offering a cozy retreat on a generous 6,693 Sq. Ft. lot. Step inside to find a welcoming living area and a well-appointed kitchen, perfect for comfortable living. While the home may require some TLC and maintenance, envision the possibilities as you transform it into a magnificent property with the right touches. Enjoy the convenience of an extended driveway and a spacious backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and leisure activities. Benefit from the strategic location, providing easy access to Highway 2. With some love and attention, this home has the potential to become your dream oasis. This home is being sold AS IS but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2024-01-17
    historical
20. 2023-01-17
    listed $78,999 Active
21. 1998-03-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,004 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,402 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$398/yr (+$33/mo · 39.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,292
• − Property taxes: −$1,004
• − Insurance: −$383
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$973
• − Management: −$973
• − Depreciation: −$2,229
• Taxable income: $2,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$554
• After-tax cash flow: $2,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercedes, TX
• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-20 Listed $76,629 HARMLS
• 2024-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-17 Listed $78,999 HARMLS
• 1998-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,004 · -19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.