1213 Colt Dr · Guthrie, OK 73044

$249,391

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,065 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 4,905 sqft lot Est $386k · 35% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The CHELSEY floor plan is rich with curb appeal with its cozy covered porch and front yard landscaping. This two-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft, and a large family room. The kitchen is fully equipped with generous counterspace, pantry, and island. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including the master suite, which includes a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Walk-in closet
• 4,905 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• FRONT YARD LANDSCAPING
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS COUNTERSPACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Guthrie Farms addition
• Financial info: Loan qualification available; Not assumable
• HOA & community: Mandatory association dues; Association fee $330 (includes common area maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Homestead eligible
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story; New construction; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built by Lennar; Post Tension foundation
• Exterior features: Patio - Open; Interior lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Post-tension foundation (structural detail)
• Interior features: Open patio access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Es (math 12% / reading 8%, grade F, #711 of 845 statewide, top 87%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $210,876 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,155
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1213 Colt Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,065 (0%)	1mo	$249,391	$121	100
1223 Colt Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,065 (0%)	8mo	$265,750	$129	92
1205 Colt Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,239 (+8%)	4mo	$275,250	$123	83
1412 Guthrie Farms Blvd	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,065 (0%)	11mo	$263,587	$128	82
1827 S Blackberry Bnd	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,075 (+0%)	3mo	$392,900	$189	75
1926 Cattle Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,075 (+0%)	2mo	$397,900	$192	71
1852 Cattle Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,100 (+2%)	3mo	$396,900	$189	71
1913 Kyle Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,139 (+4%)	4mo	$325,000	$152	62
1927 S Blackberry Bnd	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,217 (+7%)	3mo	$415,000	$187	60
1916 E Industrial Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,125 (+3%)	6mo	$430,000	$202	55
1923 E Perkins Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,318 (+12%)	3mo	$500,000	$216	40
1001 E Vilas Ave	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,252 (+9%)	13mo	$245,000	$109	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,668
• Equity at exit: $37,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $13,716
• Equity at exit: $21,563

Cash invested: $69,829 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,741/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $237,010

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,348
• Closing costs: $7,482
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Stallion Dr Guthrie, OK	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,000	$1.37	12d	1	0.04mi
2715 S Division St Guthrie, OK	4.0	3.0	3000	$2,500	$0.83	2d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $249,391
3. 2026-04-22
   price $254,884
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $257,250 Active
5. 2026-03-31
   price $257,250
6. 2026-03-31
   historical
7. 2026-03-27
   price $258,450
8. 2025-12-08
   price $259,500
9. 2025-09-29
   price $265,500
10. 2025-09-16
    listed $271,050 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,970
• − Property taxes: −$3,741
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$7,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $249,391 MLSOK
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $254,884 MLSOK
• 2026-04-01 Listed $257,250 MLSOK
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $257,250 MLSOK
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $258,450 MLSOK
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $259,500 MLSOK
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $265,500 MLSOK
• 2025-09-16 Listed $271,050 MLSOK