Ridgeland Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$253,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan shared between the family room, dining room and kitchen on the first level, while the second floor is occupied by three bedrooms - including the luxurious owner's suite featuring a private bathroom.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $253,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,153.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-602 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,083 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.91%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,153
• List price: $253,999
• Delta: -22.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
173 Bugbee	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,427 (0%)	3mo	$244,990	$172	89
285 Keefer	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	0mo	$277,990	$192	87
108 Parsons	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,427 (0%)	3mo	$248,990	$174	87
136 Parsons	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,427 (0%)	2mo	$239,999	$168	87
155 Parsons	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-1%)	0mo	$314,999	$223	83
297 Keefer	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	0mo	$252,990	$206	67
110 Madrid	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-11%)	0mo	$269,900	$212	66
149 Bugbee	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+12%)	3mo	$261,990	$164	63
130 Parsons	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+12%)	1mo	$259,999	$162	62
160 Parsons	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+12%)	1mo	$259,999	$162	61
254 Parsons	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+12%)	0mo	$260,999	$163	61
415 Keefer	0.16mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,228 (-14%)	2mo	$205,990	$168	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-97,302
• Equity at exit: $48,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-157,670
• Equity at exit: $28,200

Cash invested: $91,323 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.9 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,990 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +22.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,892/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-602

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,853

Max offer price $239,012

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-377	-5% $-490	+0% $-602	+5% $-715	+10% $-828
Rent	-10% $-767	-5% $-685	+0% $-602	+5% $-520	+10% $-437
Rate	-1.0pp $-438	-0.5pp $-519	base $-602	+0.5pp $-687	+1.0pp $-773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,538
• Closing costs: $9,785
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Jeffers Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,095	$1.29	73d	1	0.13mi
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	51d	1	0.15mi
500 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	67d	1	0.25mi
167 Rioja Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	93d	1	0.32mi
167 Rioja Unit (Main House) Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	21d	1	0.32mi
1405 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,197	$1.24	16d	1	0.35mi
1405 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,299	$1.30	42d	1	0.35mi
220 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,150	$1.21	31d	1	0.37mi
460 Buenos Aires Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,200	$1.37	30d	1	0.38mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	61d	1	0.39mi
190 Tofalla Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	73d	1	0.41mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	67d	1	0.43mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,800	$1.26	16d	1	0.46mi
228 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,900	$1.54	21d	1	0.48mi
388 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,200	$1.24	27d	1	0.48mi
341 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1611	$2,100	$1.30	33d	1	0.50mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	9d	42	0.53mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	53d	1	0.57mi
107B Pinnacle Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,377	$1.56	42d	1	0.59mi
151 Rikardson Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,179	$2.32	9d	8	0.62mi
1181 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,825	$1.37	28d	1	0.65mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,800	$1.35	21d	1	0.66mi
1054 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	21d	1	0.71mi
1054 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	28d	1	0.71mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	9d	19	0.73mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	93d	1	0.73mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,295	$2.71	9d	12	0.93mi
1075 Vaughn Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$2,314	$3.02	9d	11	1.00mi
1007 Harwell Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,750	$1.51	21d	1	1.05mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,960	$1.96	9d	9	1.16mi
1050 Wittenburg Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$1,914	$1.80	9d	14	1.22mi
101 Ina Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$1,680	$1.02	73d	1	1.31mi
251B Utterback Unit 251 B Utterback Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	21d	1	1.36mi
251 Utterback Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	21d	1	1.37mi
120 Delaware Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,175	$1.33	21d	1	1.37mi
196 Spangle Way Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1834	$2,100	$1.15	93d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $253,999 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $253,999 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $253,999 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $253,999 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $253,999 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $253,999 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $253,999 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $253,999 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $253,999 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $253,999 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $253,999 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $253,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $253,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $253,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $253,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $253,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $253,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $253,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $253,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $253,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $253,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $253,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $253,999 Active 141 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    price $253,999 Active 140 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $252,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $252,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $252,999 Active 137 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $252,999 Active 136 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $252,999 Active 135 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $252,999 Active 134 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $252,999 Active 133 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $252,999 Active 132 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $252,999 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $252,999 Active 130 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $252,999 Active 128 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $252,999 Active 126 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $252,999 Active 125 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $252,999 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $252,999 Active 121 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $252,999 Active 120 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $252,999 Active 119 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $252,999 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $252,999 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $252,999 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,999 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $252,999 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,999 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,999 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,270
• − Property taxes: −$4,892
• − Insurance: −$1,631
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,007
• − Management: −$2,007
• − Depreciation: −$9,488
• Taxable loss: −$13,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,169
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,135–$21,405 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, and the highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, new flooring, and new kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura B Negley El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $252,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $252,990 Zillow