The Robin Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,212 sqft · SingleFamily · 919 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 918 days

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,238.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 919 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,171 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 919 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,238
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -10.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15110 Rose Willow Ln	0.31mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,252 (+2%)	2mo	$299,990	$133	76
14735 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,180 (-1%)	5mo	$399,900	$183	75
15206 N Heron Heights Way	0.21mi	4/3.0	1,997 (-10%)	1mo	$335,000	$168	71
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-8%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	70
14522 Montclair Way	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,261 (+2%)	2mo	$285,000	$126	64
14898 Whistling Duck Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,942 (-12%)	5mo	$369,900	$190	58
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,064 (-7%)	1mo	$314,900	$153	55
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,064 (-7%)	2mo	$327,900	$159	55
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,061 (-7%)	2mo	$309,990	$150	53
15447 Park Perch Pl	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,502 (+13%)	1mo	$329,900	$132	44
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (-13%)	0mo	$317,900	$165	41
14805 Prickly Pear Cv	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,934 (-13%)	3mo	$295,000	$153	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $153,322
• Equity at exit: $293,000

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $453,246
• Equity at exit: $631,866

Cash invested: $91,067 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,706
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,879/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,845

Max offer price $285,982

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,309
• Closing costs: $9,757
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.05mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	43d	1	0.32mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	43d	1	0.83mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	19d	1	1.02mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 919 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 918 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 917 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 916 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 914 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 910 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 909 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 908 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 905 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 904 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 903 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 902 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 901 DOM
14. 2024-03-04
    price $289,990 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

15. 2023-12-13
    listed $284,990 Active 722-char remark

    Show marketing remark (722 chars)

    The modern Robin plan features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms with a huge game room on the second floor. The entryway leads past the staircase with a smartly positioned powder bathroom tucked underneath, into the kitchen/dining room opening up to the large yet cozy family room. The stairs lead to a giant game room on the second floor with a hallway leading to the three secondary bedrooms. Customize the Robin plan with an additional second story bedroom with a private bathroom and an optional spacious media room for movie nights. Amplify the master suite by opting for the primary bath upgrade which features a separate garden tub and shower. Choose from three different sized covered patios to meet your outdoor needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,218
• − Property taxes: −$4,879
• − Insurance: −$1,626
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − Depreciation: −$9,461
• Taxable loss: −$8,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,152
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to enhance its curb appeal and value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace landscaping with more vibrant flowers — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with more vibrant flowers — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2023-12-13 Listed $284,990 Zillow