209 S Thornwood Ave · Davenport, IA 52802

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1918

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Three season porch
• Oversized garage
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• THREE SEASON PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 28.9% vs local median 4.4% in Davenport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#126 in IA, #2,312 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Davenport Community School District (urban): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #288 of 289 in IA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 805 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (479 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.87%
• DSCR: 4.60
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 S Thornwood Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$36,000	$34	99
114 S Elmwood Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+6%)	3mo	$140,000	$125	81
2537 Boies Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,013 (-4%)	1mo	$74,900	$74	78
306 S Elmwood Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	1mo	$140,000	$146	76
2025 W 3rd St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-3%)	2mo	$125,000	$123	71
3003 Telegraph Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	8mo	$125,000	$124	66
3139 W 1st St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	5mo	$121,500	$113	66
612 Waverly Rd	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,040 (-2%)	2mo	$175,000	$168	65
809 Cimarron Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+3%)	3mo	$164,000	$150	63
2008 Dixwell St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+8%)	4mo	$118,000	$104	62
3154 Diehn Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-11%)	5mo	$107,700	$114	46
636 Cedar St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-11%)	3mo	$68,000	$72	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $36,453
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.79×
• Total profit: $86,148
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52802

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,316/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 S Thornwood Ave Davenport, IA	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,395	$1.12	13d	1	0.07mi
510 S Lincoln Ave Davenport, IA	2.0	1.0	1184	$1,195	$1.01	21d	1	0.33mi
445 Waverly Rd Davenport, IA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,200	$1.22	43d	1	0.38mi
1912 Dixwell St Davenport, IA	4.0	2.0	1116	$1,300	$1.16	43d	1	0.54mi
627 N Division St Davenport, IA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	43d	1	0.94mi
1716 W 7th St Davenport, IA	4.0	1.0	1278	$1,712	$1.34	13d	1	0.97mi
1529 W 6th St Davenport, IA	2.0	1.0	794	$850	$1.07	13d	1	1.02mi
1341 W 4th St Davenport, IA	3.0	1.5	979	$1,394	$1.42	43d	1	1.19mi
1607 W 12th St Davenport, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$740	$0.93	43d	3	1.20mi
1455 W 12th St Davenport, IA	3.0	1.0	942	$1,095	$1.16	13d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,316 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,316 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,316
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,177
• − Management: −$1,177
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $6,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davenport Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1908580
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,157
• Composite: 39.49/100
• National rank: #3951
• State rank: #288 of 289 in IA

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #2312

Category grades

Amenities A Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Davenport, IA
• County: Scott County · 144,583 people
• City population: 103,319
• Metro: Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,466
• Household income: $54,380
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 244.0

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 188,878 people
• By 2030: 196,648 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 210,860 · +11.6%
• By 2050: 224,359 · +18.8%
• By 2075: 258,884 · +37.1%
• By 2100: 286,447 · +51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.3% · R 51.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+13.8 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.59%
• Current HPI: 151.2076
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $35,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,316 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.