5139 Northland Ave · St. Louis, MO 63113

$35,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,672 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1923 6,089 sqft lot $10/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market through no fault of seller Property to be sold as-is with no concessions, inspections or repairs to be done by seller. A list will be made of interested parties and a showing will be arranged.

Key facts

• 6,089 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 197 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.6% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $751 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 75% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 136.75%
• DSCR: 7.08
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,787
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -71.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4917 Aldine Pl	0.52mi	4/4.0	3,400 (-7%)	22mo	$32,000	$9	45
1613 Union Blvd	0.42mi	4/4.0	4,176 (+14%)	20mo	$114,900	$28	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $66,739
• Equity at exit: $6,568

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.40×
• Total profit: $150,879
• Equity at exit: $5,395

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63113

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $272/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $1,117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,137	-5% $1,127	+0% $1,117	+5% $1,107	+10% $1,097
Rent	-10% $983	-5% $1,050	+0% $1,117	+5% $1,184	+10% $1,251
Rate	-1.0pp $1,134	-0.5pp $1,126	base $1,117	+0.5pp $1,108	+1.0pp $1,099

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    status Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Back on the market through no fault of seller Property to be sold as-is with no concessions, inspections or repairs to be done by seller. A list will be made of interested parties and a showing will be arranged.

15. 2026-02-26
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Back on the market through no fault of seller Property to be sold as-is with no concessions, inspections or repairs to be done by seller. A list will be made of interested parties and a showing will be arranged.

16. 2025-11-26
    price $35,000 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Back on the market through no fault of seller Property to be sold as-is with no concessions, inspections or repairs to be done by seller. A list will be made of interested parties and a showing will be arranged.

17. 2025-09-19
    listed $20,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Back on the market through no fault of seller Property to be sold as-is with no concessions, inspections or repairs to be done by seller. A list will be made of interested parties and a showing will be arranged.

18. 2003-02-20
    soldstatus
19. 2002-06-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $272 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$67/yr (+$6/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$272
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $13,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,274
• After-tax cash flow: $10,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 11,610

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% White 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 107.1335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Listed $20,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $272 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.