3822 Katy Hollow Dr · Houston, TX 77449

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 6,194 sqft lot Est $308k · 11% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 4 bedroom, single story home located on cul-de-sac. Large master suite with whirlpool tub and seperate shower, wood floors in family room, large kitchen and breakfast, formal dining room, Outdoor build-ing on slab, Sprinklers. Missing appliances & kitchen cabinet doors, Needs little TLC to make this a nice home. Contract excepted, waiting on signed docs.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Gas cooking
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GAS COOKING
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Inframark; Annual association fee: $445

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2002
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence (back yard); Backs to greenbelt/park; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (17 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (15 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments / coverings; One fireplace; Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcroberts El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 708 students, 77% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 27% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,372 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,066
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20111 Westfield Pkwy	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,250 (-2%)	1mo	$314,900	$140	92
3703 Lindenfield Dr	0.37mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,213 (-4%)	3mo	$310,000	$140	67
20703 Cypress Rain Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,220 (-3%)	5mo	$289,500	$130	67
20610 Maple Rain Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,413 (+5%)	0mo	$300,000	$124	64
4210 Audrey Manor Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,099 (-9%)	3mo	$299,000	$142	59
3610 Windlewood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,190 (-5%)	3mo	$279,999	$128	59
19915 Brandon Oaks Way	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,400 (+4%)	0mo	$315,000	$131	58
3739 Slocom Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,959 (-15%)	3mo	$295,000	$151	58
3771 Goldleaf Trail Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,247 (-2%)	2mo	$299,998	$134	57
19918 Hoppers Creek Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,410 (+5%)	4mo	$260,000	$108	54
4510 Russet Leaf Trce	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,593 (+13%)	1mo	$350,000	$135	53
19919 Fairgrange Place Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,612 (+14%)	4mo	$315,000	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,929
• Equity at exit: $62,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-70,736
• Equity at exit: $62,985

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$530 /mo · $6,365/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $227,372

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-114	-5% $-192	+0% $-270	+5% $-347	+10% $-425
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-362	+0% $-270	+5% $-177	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-200	base $-270	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20722 Iron Timber Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2785	$2,600	$0.93	22d	1	0.44mi
4211 Fair Country Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2342	$2,275	$0.97	25d	1	0.49mi
4542 Medrano Trl Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2797	$3,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.67mi
4535 Medrano Trl Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2657	$2,600	$0.98	44d	1	0.67mi
19810 Hoppers Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2400	$1,956	$0.81	22d	1	0.69mi
4802 Upland Dale Ct Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2298	$2,100	$0.91	12d	1	0.77mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	44d	1	0.80mi
4938 Yearling Ridge Ct Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2660	$2,250	$0.85	44d	1	0.92mi
20911 Hazy Bluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2940	$2,450	$0.83	44d	1	0.93mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	44d	1	0.94mi
19319 Cypress Arbor Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1794	$1,940	$1.08	8d	1	0.97mi
5039 Lamppost Hill Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2384	$1,896	$0.80	22d	1	1.00mi
19403 Misty Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,999	$1.17	6d	1	1.07mi
19311 Cypress Bay Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	2052	$2,080	$1.01	4d	1	1.08mi
21106 Blackbluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,950	$1.05	6d	1	1.09mi
21207 Woodland Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2017	$2,099	$1.04	44d	1	1.17mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	3d	1	1.27mi
21643 Bay Palms Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2438	$2,200	$0.90	13d	1	1.40mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	6d	1	1.40mi
19434 Brook Village Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1822	$1,950	$1.07	44d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Pending 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Pending 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   status $275,000 Pending 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-04
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,365 · $530/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,365 · $530/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$6,365
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+141.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-10-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-09-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-08-15 Listed $114,000 HARMLS
• 2008-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,365 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.