15010 Tremaine Ct · Conroe, TX 77316

$238,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by Sterling Association Services; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $238,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $145,364.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Reed El (586 students, 47% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $208,921 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.39%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,364
• List price: $238,990
• Delta: 64.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
523 Dalloway St	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,689 (+7%)	15mo	$238,425	$141	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $15,178
• Equity at exit: $21,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $49,209
• Equity at exit: $12,568

Cash invested: $40,702 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$762
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $145,364

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,341
• Closing costs: $4,361
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	43d	1	0.13mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	20d	1	0.14mi
583 Firemoon St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,650	$1.17	20d	1	0.16mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	4d	1	0.16mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	2d	1	0.21mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.44mi
425 McCaleb Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,702	$1.84	2d	20	0.45mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	43d	1	0.95mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,990 Active 34 DOM

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

2. 2026-06-18
   price $238,990 Active 33 DOM

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,290 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,290 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 597-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,290 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,290 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,290 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,290 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $232,290 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $232,290 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,290 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,290 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,290 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,290 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    historical
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $239,440 Active 564-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    price $239,440

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

19. 2026-04-20
    price $239,440
20. 2026-04-15
    listed $235,990 Active
21. 2026-04-14
    listed $235,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,391/yr (+$283/mo · 345.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,143
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$4,229
• Taxable income: $6,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $6,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $238,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $232,290 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $232,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $235,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $235,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $239,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $239,440 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $239,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $235,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $235,990 Zillow