11128 Ida Coldwell Ln · Socorro, TX 79927

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,307 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2016 4,999 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience refined living in this beautifully designed single-story residence featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths. From the moment you enter, you're welcomed by an expansive formal living space that sets the tone for elegance, seamlessly transitioning into a thoughtfully designed semi-open layout ideal for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The dining area, kitchen, and bathrooms are adorned with sleek tile flooring, offering both durability and sophistication. At the heart of the home, the galley-style kitchen showcases granite countertops with a coordinated backsplash, modern flat-panel cabinetry, a stainless steel double sink, and an inviting breakfast nook--perfect for intimate m

Key facts

• Semi-open layout
• Galley-style kitchen
• Tile flooring

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY RESIDENCE
• FORMAL LIVING SPACE
• SEMI-OPEN LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area about 1306; Lot about 0.11 acres
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not provided
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Community sewer
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Year built information not provided
• Exterior features: Walled backyard with back yard access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating (central, forced air); Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-468/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: H D Hilley El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 514 students, 88% FRL); Salvador Sanchez Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 615 students, 86% FRL); Socorro H S (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,484 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 66% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,924 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.76%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,615
• Equity at exit: $53,807

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $24,057
• Equity at exit: $57,101

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,381/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,039

Max offer price $213,113

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $86	-5% $23	+0% $-39	+5% $-101	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-118	+0% $-39	+5% $40	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $72	-0.5pp $17	base $-39	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Stetson Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,850	$1.26	4d	1	0.73mi
13847 Sandy Pine Way Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	0.75mi
125 Via Rojas Dr Horizon City, TX	4.0	2.0	1487	$1,760	$1.18	5d	1	0.98mi
10129 Christmas Cactus Pl El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,895	$1.04	5d	1	1.09mi
141 Nonap Rd El Paso, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,980	$1.97	4d	9	1.09mi
213 Epsom Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	1.14mi
12874 Woolstone Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$1,995	$1.13	45d	1	1.31mi
12407 Joe Gomez Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.5	1639	$1,700	$1.04	16d	1	1.32mi
12832 Haxby Ct El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,800	$1.12	4d	1	1.33mi
223 Notts Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1437	$1,680	$1.17	46d	1	1.35mi
12926 Terrington Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	1.36mi
12934 Terrington Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,925	$1.22	12d	1	1.37mi
12878 Clevedon St El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1872	$2,250	$1.20	45d	1	1.45mi
12911 Aberdare Dr El Paso, TX	4.0	2.5	1838	$2,200	$1.20	16d	1	1.46mi
247 Herts Way El Paso, TX	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,900	$1.16	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 2026-04-09
   historical
4. 2026-02-12
   price $225,000
5. 2025-12-05
   listed $230,000 Active
6. 2017-04-13
   listed $133,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,381 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,381 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,381
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$997
• After-tax cash flow: $529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $220,000 GEPARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $225,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $230,000 GEPARMLS
• 2017-04-13 Listed $133,000 GEPARMLS

Property tax history

+20.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,381 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.