123 White Tail Ln · Lower Windsor, PA 17366

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2009 $420/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent Condition Doublewide. 3 bedroom 2 bath 2001 Fleetwood in a very quiet park in Eastern Schools. Original owners. Master bath with garden tub. Reasonable park rent $290. Don't Wait!!

Key facts

• Main bath
• Owners bedroom suite
• Walk in closet

Tags

• PASS THRU WINDOW
• OWNERS BEDROOM SUITE
• STEP IN SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• MAIN BATH
• TUB SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Not in a federal flood zone; Building is not winterized; Level of property condition: Excellent
• Financial info: Land lease payment $420 monthly
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA/land lease fee of $420; HOA/association covers management, sewer, snow removal, trash, and road maintenance; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Two off-street driveway spaces; Paved/asphalt driveway and parking
• Utilities: Cable available; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water; Propane available (owned); Community/private water; Community septic tank; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Detached modular/manufactured home; One-story; Built using vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Insulated windows; Located in a senior community (55+); Land lease ownership interest
• Construction: Crawl space foundation; Modular/manufactured construction; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Level lot with rear yard; Deck(s) and patio(s); Shed; Ramp to main level

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Two full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane (owned) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Stall shower and tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Dining area; Traditional floor plan; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Vaulted ceilings; Second kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer on main floor; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($311/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eastern York SD (rural): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #146 of 539 in PA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Eastern York Ms (math 30% / reading 70%, grade C, #129 of 512 statewide, top 26%, 517 students, 48% FRL); Eastern York Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 632 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $153 of equity ($829 loan paydown + $-676 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $120k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.93%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Oak Leaf Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-0%)	23mo	$75,500	$70	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,748
• Equity at exit: $31,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,275
• Equity at exit: $35,263

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17366

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,174/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$420
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $60	+0% $26	+5% $-8	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-96	-5% $-35	+0% $26	+5% $87	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $56	base $26	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $420 · $5,040/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 394-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $119,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,174 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,534 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,174
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,486
• − Management: −$1,486
• − HOA: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern York SD
• NCES district ID: 4208790
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,178
• Composite: 44.94/100
• National rank: #2712
• State rank: #146 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Windsor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,350

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 274.8409
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+185.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-30 Sold (MLS) $41,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-05-14 Listed $42,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,174 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.