203 Road 1451 · Saltillo, MS 38866

$119,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1970 $94/sqft · 24% below area $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DON'T MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY! One owner enchanting mid-century modern lakefront property at Saltillo Fishing Club! Located on a double lot (leased land), this charming cabin is ready for new ownership. Upstairs are 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom along with a living-dining area, U-shaped kitchen with large eat-at-island, appointed bar area with separate fridge for entertaining, separate laundry room. Spiral staircase leads to two additional bedrooms, large living area, downstairs bar area with fridge and a library nook in finished basement. Fireplace upstairs and downstairs. Beautiful views across the back of the house while enjoying the lovely wrap around porch overlooking the breathtaking l

Key facts

• Lakefront property
• U-shaped kitchen
• Double lot

Tags

• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• DOUBLE LOT
• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• APPOINTED BAR AREA
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From 45 to Saltillo, take 145 Exit to Saltillo. Turn right on Mobile Street. Turn right on CR 1389, turn right on CR 1451. Property on the right. Look for gate and sign near mailbox with 203 on it.
• Financial info: Annual tax amount: $1,216.91
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $125 (about $10.42/month); Subdivision: Saltillo Fishing Club

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family ranch residence; 2 stories
• Exterior features: Waterfront property; Located on a waterfront lot; Lot held as leasehold

Interior

• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#48 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee County School District (rural): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #51 of 130 in MS (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.24%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,481
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -51.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,172
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $22,294
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38866

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,217/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $119,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,217
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $3,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,435
• Composite: 30.38/100
• National rank: #6253
• State rank: #51 of 130 in MS

Livability — Saltillo

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #8244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,714
• Population (ZIP): 11,714

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,253 people
• By 2030: 92,125 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 94,914 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 95,841 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 94,189 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 83,736 · -7.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 9% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Vietnamese 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+30.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.48%
• Current HPI: 173.8036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) — NEMSBD
• 2026-06-01 Pending — NEMSBD
• 2026-05-06 Listed $119,000 NEMSBD

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,217 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.