431 Fitzhugh Ave · Paris, TX 75460

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,184 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large older home in one of Paris' oldest neighborhoods. Perfect for a large family. Covered front porch that wraps around one side of the home to enjoy the evenings. Separate HVAC unit for each level of the home. Large fenced backyard with several mature trees for the kids and pets to play. It does need some repairs to the exterior and interior but a good buy for the square footage.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Separate hvac unit
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SEPARATE HVAC UNIT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage or carport)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; All-weather road access; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; Not attached to another property; Subdivision: SCPA
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Bois DArc post foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered porch(es); Gutters; Chain link fence in back yard; Lot roughly 68 x 175 (less than 0.5 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with walk-in closet (approx. 16 x 19); Bedroom on level 2 with walk-in closet (approx. 16 x 17); Bedroom on level 2 (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom on level 2 (approx. 9 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood under carpet
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; 13 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room with space for freezer; utility closet (approx. 7 x 14)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,769 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.42%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,038
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,473
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75460

• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,448 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $847/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $267	+0% $225	+5% $182	+10% $140
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $167	+0% $225	+5% $282	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $263	base $225	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 385-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $847 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,896/yr (+$158/mo · 223.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$847
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,390
• − Management: −$1,390
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $2,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• County: Lamar County · 23,426 people
• City population: 23,426
• Metro: Paris, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,426
• Household income: $46,473
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1355.0

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.50%
• Current HPI: 145.3511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paris, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 1999-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $847 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.