Bergen Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$283,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• Major roadways
• Parks

Tags

• OPEN AIR RECREATION CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• PARKS
• SCENIC LAKES
• MAJOR ROADWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $283,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,657.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-409/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $247,325 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,657
• List price: $283,990
• Delta: -1.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1734 Indigo Chase Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+1%)	1mo	$235,140	$124	88
18327 Ginger Glen Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,859 (-1%)	1mo	$308,990	$166	88
1730 Indigo Chase Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+4%)	1mo	$309,990	$159	79
1635 Golden Iris Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+9%)	1mo	$281,990	$138	76
18530 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+5%)	1mo	$238,990	$121	75
1619 Golden Iris Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+9%)	1mo	$281,990	$138	74
1530 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	0mo	$223,990	$127	74
18506 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	1mo	$205,790	$117	71
1511 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	1mo	$205,290	$119	68
1542 Marigold Bend Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-8%)	1mo	$246,990	$143	63
1719 Indigo Chase Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-15%)	0mo	$290,990	$182	60
1602 Marigold Bend Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-13%)	1mo	$246,190	$151	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,471
• Equity at exit: $42,891

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,163
• Equity at exit: $24,871

Cash invested: $80,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,315/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,516

Max offer price $282,728

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,914
• Closing costs: $8,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	0.26mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	24d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,990 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,990 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,990 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,990 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,990 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $283,990 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,990 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,990 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-02-14
    listed $305,990 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,113
• − Property taxes: −$4,315
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − Depreciation: −$8,368
• Taxable loss: −$5,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout with a good condition score. It is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $305,990 Zillow