3993 Rauch St · Lower Paxton, PA 17109

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1951 6,534 sqft lot $173/sqft · 15% below area Est $194k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a 3-bed ranch home in Lower Paxton Township with one-level living, a partially finished basement, and off-street parking? 3993 Rauch St offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, approximately 1,000 sq ft, and a 6,599 sq ft lot in the Central Dauphin School District, Lower Paxton Township. Built in 1951, the property includes forced air heat, air conditioning, in-unit laundry, washer and dryer, and off-street parking. Convenient Harrisburg location with access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. * * * Currently tenant occupied with property management in place. Can be purchased with individually or with up to 3 other properties in portfolio. * * *

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 92 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-362/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $165k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,582 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,069
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -14.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3616 Canterbury Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+2%)	8mo	$239,000	$245	59
3583 Marshfield Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0	960 (+1%)	21mo	$52,350	$55	48
3598 Mobile Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,027 (+8%)	4mo	$83,000	$81	45
105 Penrose St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+11%)	22mo	$216,000	$205	39
3589 Mobile Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+6%)	18mo	$97,450	$96	34
3519 Elmerton Ave	0.70mi	2/1.5	1,064 (+12%)	17mo	$235,000	$221	31
3599 Mobile Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+11%)	15mo	$71,000	$67	30
3595 Sparton Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,026 (+8%)	24mo	$70,000	$68	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,264
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,854
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17109

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,291/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $159,672

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4216 Jonestown Rd Unit A3 Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	0.31mi
4212 Williamsburg Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	923	$1,479	$1.60	13d	14	0.37mi
4229 Elmerton Ave Unit A Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	535	$1,350	$2.52	43d	1	0.39mi
3800 Elmerton Ave Unit 3800- 1 Harrisburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	23d	1	0.43mi
4112 Beechwood Ln Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,542	$1.53	13d	8	0.62mi
301 N Progress Ave Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1203	$1,466	$1.22	13d	4	0.74mi
4131 Spring Valley Rd Harrisburg, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,440	$1.48	13d	1	0.82mi
500 Beacon Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,410	$2.01	13d	5	0.85mi
4245 Sussex Dr Lower Paxton Township, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,395	$1.94	43d	1	0.95mi
3250 Wakefield Rd Harrisburg, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,305	$2.01	13d	12	1.05mi
821 Sequoia Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1200	$1,598	$1.33	13d	42	1.15mi
1008 Eaglecrest Ct Harrisburg, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	779	$1,485	$1.91	13d	33	1.20mi
2679 Alessandro Blvd Harrisburg, PA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1217	$1,662	$1.37	13d	4	1.41mi
2711 Walnut St Unit 1 Penbrook, PA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $165,000 Active 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Looking for a 3-bed ranch home in Lower Paxton Township with one-level living, a partially finished basement, and off-street parking? 3993 Rauch St offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, approximately 1,000 sq ft, and a 6,599 sq ft lot in the Central Dauphin School District, Lower Paxton Township. Built in 1951, the property includes forced air heat, air conditioning, in-unit laundry, washer and dryer, and off-street parking. Convenient Harrisburg location with access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. * * * Currently tenant occupied with property management in place. Can be purchased with individually or with up to 3 other properties in portfolio. * * *

18. 2026-03-15
    historical $165,000 667-char remark

    Show marketing remark (667 chars)

    Looking for a 3-bed ranch home in Lower Paxton Township with one-level living, a partially finished basement, and off-street parking? 3993 Rauch St offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, approximately 1,000 sq ft, and a 6,599 sq ft lot in the Central Dauphin School District, Lower Paxton Township. Built in 1951, the property includes forced air heat, air conditioning, in-unit laundry, washer and dryer, and off-street parking. Convenient Harrisburg location with access to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. * * * Currently tenant occupied with property management in place. Can be purchased with individually or with up to 3 other properties in portfolio. * * *

19. 1998-10-20
    soldstatus $65,500
20. 1986-06-30
    soldstatus $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,291
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$766
• After-tax cash flow: $404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Paxton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Progress, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,466
• Household income: $71,833
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1266.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · India, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.02%
• Current HPI: 253.77
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+200.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-15 Coming Soon $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1986-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,291 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.