4972 State Route 31 · Brewerton, NY 13041

$300,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 960 Days on market

Built 1900 9,350 sqft lot $223/sqft · 22% below area Est $382k · 22% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two story home has 3 bedrooms, a very large living room, enclosed front porch, kitchen with a portable island and formal dining room. First laundry and bathroom. Upstairs are 3 bedrooms, a large bonus room at the top of the stairs and plank floors. There is a full attic with drop down stairs and a full basement that is about 5 feet in height. The back yard has a deck that looks out into the yard with no neighbors. The property behind is currently for sale. The proposed Micron chip site is minutes away. Close to 481, mall shopping and dining. This is a great investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 9,350 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Brewerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 960 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,046 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 960 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.65%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,403
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -21.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8495 Caughdenoy Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-1%)	12mo	$180,000	$136	68
Lot 18 Harke Farms	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+15%)	18mo	$450,000	$292	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-41,315
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-26,798
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13041

• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,220/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8587 Caughdenoy Rd Clay, NY	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,500	$2.22	21d	1	0.26mi
4597 New York 31 Clay, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,700	$2.79	13d	7	1.26mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 960 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 959 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 958 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 957 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $300,000 Active 955 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 954 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 952 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 951 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 950 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 949 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 945 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 944 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 943 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 942 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 941 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $300,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This two story home has 3 bedrooms, a very large living room, enclosed front porch, kitchen with a portable island and formal dining room. First laundry and bathroom. Upstairs are 3 bedrooms, a large bonus room at the top of the stairs and plank floors. There is a full attic with drop down stairs and a full basement that is about 5 feet in height. The back yard has a deck that looks out into the yard with no neighbors. The property behind is currently for sale. The proposed Micron chip site is minutes away. Close to 481, mall shopping and dining. This is a great investment opportunity.

17. 2023-11-01
    listed $400,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    This two story home has 3 bedrooms, a very large living room, enclosed front porch, kitchen with a portable island and formal dining room. First laundry and bathroom. Upstairs are 3 bedrooms, a large bonus room at the top of the stairs and plank floors. There is a full attic with drop down stairs and a full basement that is about 5 feet in height. The back yard has a deck that looks out into the yard with no neighbors. The property behind is currently for sale. The proposed Micron chip site is minutes away. Close to 481, mall shopping and dining. This is a great investment opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,220 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,425/yr (+$119/mo · 64.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$2,220
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$3,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$899
• After-tax cash flow: $2,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brewerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11214

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,594
• Population (ZIP): 12,094

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.12%
• Current HPI: 326.7838
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $300,000 CNYIS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $400,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,220 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.