16352 Crockett Xing · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2002 1.07 ac lot Est $238k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home on 1.066 fenced acres with two storage sheds, a large rear deck, and a covered front porch perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful setting. Inside, this spacious home features both a large den and a separate family room—ideal for entertaining or spreading out. Updates include luxury vinyl flooring, new carpet, new range and disposal, new ceiling fans, and a reverse osmosis system along with whole-house water purifier. One bath has been tastefully updated with new vanity, sink, faucet, and toilet. Additional improvements include a new A/C and furnace (2022), roof (2022), and hot water heater. The home is bright and inviting with plenty

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large den
• Fenced acres

Tags

• FENCED ACRES
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• LARGE REAR DECK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE DEN
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Crockett Trace HOA with annual fee for common areas

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; One-story layout (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2002; Cement siding; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 13 x 14; Bedroom (first floor) — 10.5 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 12; Total bedrooms possible: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Window treatments and coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-780/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,287 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,336
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16359 Crockett Xing	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,432 (0%)	7mo	$239,000	$98	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,709
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-72,899
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,112/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $238,519

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $6	+0% $-65	+5% $-136	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-147	+0% $-65	+5% $17	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-1	base $-65	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	44d	1	0.64mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	11d	1	0.99mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	44d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $250,000
3. 2026-02-10
   price $255,000
4. 2026-01-31
   listed $260,000 Active
5. 2026-01-30
   historical
6. 2026-01-27
   status Active
7. 2026-01-24
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-02
   price $260,000
9. 2025-10-28
   price $265,000
10. 2025-10-22
    price $270,000
11. 2025-10-09
    listed $274,900 Active
12. 2025-09-30
    historical
13. 2025-09-16
    price $280,000
14. 2025-09-03
    price $285,000
15. 2025-08-22
    price $294,900
16. 2025-08-13
    price $299,900
17. 2025-08-05
    price $305,000
18. 2025-07-29
    price $315,000
19. 2025-07-10
    price $320,000
20. 2025-06-19
    listed $330,000 Active
21. 2025-06-09
    historical
22. 2022-01-24
    soldstatus
23. 2022-01-21
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2022-01-02
    status Pending
25. 2021-12-22
    status Option Pending
26. 2021-12-10
    price $205,000
27. 2021-11-16
    listed $215,000 Active
28. 2017-05-18
    soldstatus
29. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus
31. 2017-03-16
    status Pending
32. 2017-03-03
    status Option Pending
33. 2017-01-17
    price $114,900
34. 2016-12-13
    listed $120,000 Active
35. 2016-12-10
    listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,463/yr (+$122/mo · 47.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,112
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.6% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-10 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-16 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-17 Sold (MLS) — BCSRMLS
• 2017-05-17 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-17 Price Changed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2016-12-13 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2016-12-10 Listed $114,900 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,112 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.