1302 W Ajo Way #231 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$76,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured · 493 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $51/sqft · 51% below area $675/mo HOA · 42% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* ALSO AVAILABLE FOR RENT: $1,475/MO * Beautifully remodeled and spacious 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates, a 55+ Community! This home was professionally renovated and is brand new inside. New appliances, new water heater, new flooring and carpet, a large deck and covered parking, new roof, and much more! This one won't last, schedule your tour today! If you are over the age of 40, please reach out for more information.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Remodeled
• Covered parking

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE DECK
• COVERED PARKING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $76,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$155,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($993/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 493 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 493 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.66%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,000
• List price: $76,000
• Delta: -50.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2920 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 1	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+1%)	10mo	$350,000	$233	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-11,043
• Equity at exit: $11,332

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-18,259
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$675
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 S Kostka Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,895	$1.21	1d	1	0.27mi
1074 W Pennsylvania St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,395	$1.09	14d	1	0.51mi
3655 S San Rafael Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	43d	1	0.58mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	0.86mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,500	$2.26	1d	23	0.92mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	11d	1	1.00mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,600	$1.17	23d	1	1.08mi
3917 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,590	$1.52	3d	1	1.10mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	43d	1	1.10mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,375	$2.22	43d	10	1.13mi
1808 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,395	$1.11	43d	1	1.13mi
4209 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1612	$1,660	$1.03	3d	1	1.14mi
3638 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	945	$1,600	$1.69	3d	1	1.18mi
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	990	$1,400	$1.41	11d	2	1.28mi
108 W Palmdale St Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	21d	1	1.31mi
102 W District St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1587	$1,450	$0.91	3d	1	1.34mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,700	$1.62	44d	1	1.38mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	14d	1	1.38mi
718 W Louisiana St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	968	$1,475	$1.52	20d	1	1.46mi
5133 S Lavender Hills Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,895	$1.25	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $675 · $8,100/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,000 Active 493 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,000 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,000 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,000 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,000 Active 488 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $76,000 Active 485 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,000 Active 484 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 483 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,000 Active 482 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $76,000 Active 479 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,000 Active 478 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,000 Active 477 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,000 Active 476 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,000 Active 475 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $76,000 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * ALSO AVAILABLE FOR RENT: $1,475/MO * Beautifully remodeled and spacious 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates, a 55+ Community! This home was professionally renovated and is brand new inside. New appliances, new water heater, new flooring and carpet, a large deck and covered parking, new roof, and much more! This one won't last, schedule your tour today! If you are over the age of 40, please reach out for more information.

16. 2025-02-10
    listed $87,900 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    * ALSO AVAILABLE FOR RENT: $1,475/MO * Beautifully remodeled and spacious 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates, a 55+ Community! This home was professionally renovated and is brand new inside. New appliances, new water heater, new flooring and carpet, a large deck and covered parking, new roof, and much more! This one won't last, schedule your tour today! If you are over the age of 40, please reach out for more information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − HOA: −$8,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$68
• After-tax cash flow: $925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled and spacious 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It has been professionally renovated and is brand new inside, with new appliances, new flooring and carpet, a large deck and covered parking, and a new roof. The home is move-in ready and would be a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern ceiling fans improve airflow and aesthetics
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen — New flooring in the kitchen would improve functionality and appearance
• Both Install new cabinets in kitchen — New cabinets would provide storage and improve the kitchen's functionality
• Both Install new appliances in kitchen — New appliances would improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — New fixtures would improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern ceiling fans improve airflow and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen — New flooring in the kitchen would improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Install new cabinets in kitchen — New cabinets would provide storage and improve the kitchen's functionality ↑
• Both Install new appliances in kitchen — New appliances would improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — New fixtures would improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $76,000 Zillow
• 2025-02-10 Listed $87,900 Zillow