1302 W Ajo Way #231 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$76,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured · 636 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2025 Good condition $51/sqft · 49% below area Est $150k · 49% under $675/mo HOA · 56% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.9

Listing remarks MLS

* ALSO AVAILABLE FOR RENT: $1,475/MO * Beautifully remodeled and spacious 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates, a 55+ Community! This home was professionally renovated and is brand new inside. New appliances, new water heater, new flooring and carpet, a large deck and covered parking, new roof, and much more! This one won't last, schedule your tour today! If you are over the age of 40, please reach out for more information.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Remodeled
• Covered parking

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE DECK
• COVERED PARKING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $76,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$150,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $39k (48.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gale Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #438 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 335 students, 54% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 420 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 636 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 56% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,191 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 636 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.34%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $76,000
• Delta: -49.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1041 W Ebner Pl	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,495 (+0%)	3mo	$298,500	$200	76
3125 S Doucette Ln	0.83mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+3%)	4mo	$289,900	$190	57
4101 S Kostka Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+17%)	5mo	$315,000	$181	54
4545 S 15th Ave	0.98mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+7%)	2mo	$248,000	$155	51
672 W Calle Romeo	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-9%)	2mo	$305,000	$224	49
325 W District St	1.15mi	3/2.0	1,358 (-9%)	2mo	$270,000	$199	49
1999 W Bramburgh Ct	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-8%)	4mo	$235,000	$173	48
3022 S Oberon Rd	0.90mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-9%)	4mo	$294,999	$217	47
3907 S 15th Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+22%)	2mo	$235,000	$130	40
3617 S Mission Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,195 (-20%)	3mo	$265,000	$222	38
1831 W Dominy Rd	1.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-22%)	2mo	$136,000	$117	33
3615 S Lundy Ave	1.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+17%)	3mo	$293,000	$169	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,354
• Equity at exit: $11,332

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.78×
• Total profit: $-59,095
• Equity at exit: $6,571

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 84.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $87,500 ($62/sqft)
• Median days on market: 222 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +63.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$95 /mo · $1,140/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$675
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $39,191

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-202	-5% $-228	+0% $-254	+5% $-281	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-302	+0% $-254	+5% $-207	+10% $-160
Rate	-1.0pp $-216	-0.5pp $-235	base $-254	+0.5pp $-274	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 S Kostka Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1568	$1,795	$1.14	120d	1	0.27mi
1655 W Ajo Way Unit 453 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	112d	1	0.39mi
1074 W Pennsylvania St Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,395	$1.09	155d	1	0.51mi
3655 S San Rafael Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	184d	1	0.58mi
3311 S Placita Saltillo Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,295	$1.37	108d	1	0.68mi
3320 S Placita Saltillo Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,250	$1.05	10d	1	0.69mi
1839 W Mission Harbor Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,665	$1.39	0d	1	0.84mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	184d	1	0.86mi
3528 S Mission Rd #2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	127d	1	0.89mi
3528 S Mission Rd #2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	1d	1	0.89mi
1862 W Calle Guadalajara Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,707	$1.26	2d	1	0.89mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,626	$2.45	0d	18	0.92mi
501 W President St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	970	$1,399	$1.44	28d	1	0.94mi
3031 S Sunset Villa Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,750	$1.09	15d	1	0.95mi
3480 S Clark Ave Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	108d	1	0.97mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	55d	1	1.00mi
631 W 40th St Unit 635 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	890	$995	$1.12	10d	1	1.01mi
631 W 40th St Unit 635 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	890	$995	$1.12	11d	1	1.01mi
631 W 40th St Unit 637 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	890	$995	$1.12	122d	1	1.02mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,300	$0.95	133d	1	1.08mi
3917 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,590	$1.52	144d	1	1.10mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	184d	1	1.10mi
1826 W Dominy Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1055	$1,275	$1.21	29d	1	1.11mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,375	$2.22	10d	8	1.13mi
1808 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,395	$1.11	184d	1	1.13mi
4209 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	1612	$1,435	$0.89	10d	1	1.14mi
944 W 34th St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,750	$1.62	2d	1	1.18mi
3638 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	10d	1	1.18mi
1846 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	122d	1	1.18mi
1866 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,500	$1.45	131d	1	1.21mi
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,700	$1.08	9d	1	1.28mi
2153 S Placita del Jubilo Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,200	$1.03	10d	1	1.31mi
108 W Palmdale St Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	162d	1	1.31mi
3661 S 7th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	55d	1	1.33mi
2012 W Dozemary Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,650	$1.11	108d	1	1.33mi
102 W District St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1587	$1,395	$0.88	120d	1	1.34mi
1999 W Bramburgh Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,595	$1.17	10d	1	1.35mi
237 W Ohio St Unit B Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1067	$1,750	$1.64	7d	1	1.37mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	1d	1	1.38mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	51d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail $675/mo · $8,100/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $76,000 Active 636 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $76,000 Active 635 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $76,000 Active 634 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $76,000 Active 633 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $76,000 Active 632 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $76,000 Active 630 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $76,000 Active 629 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $76,000 Active 628 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $76,000 Active 627 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $76,000 Active 626 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $76,000 Active 625 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $76,000 Active 624 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $76,000 Active 623 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $76,000 Active 622 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $76,000 Active 621 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $76,000 Active 620 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $76,000 Active 619 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $76,000 Active 618 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $76,000 Active 617 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $76,000 Active 616 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $76,000 Active 615 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $76,000 Active 614 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $76,000 Active 613 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $76,000 Active 612 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $76,000 Active 611 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $76,000 Active 610 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $76,000 Active 609 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $76,000 Active 608 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $76,000 Active 607 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $76,000 Active 606 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $76,000 Active 605 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $76,000 Active 604 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $76,000 Active 603 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $76,000 Active 602 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $76,000 Active 601 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $76,000 Active 600 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $76,000 Active 599 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $76,000 Active 598 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $76,000 Active 597 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $76,000 Active 596 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $76,000 Active 595 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $76,000 Active 594 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $76,000 Active 592 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $76,000 Active 591 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $76,000 Active 590 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $76,000 Active 589 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $76,000 Active 588 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $76,000 Active 587 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $76,000 Active 586 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $76,000 Active 585 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$1,140
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − HOA: −$8,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable loss: −$4,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$965
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,440–$22,320 screening

This beautifully remodeled and spacious 3 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It has been professionally renovated and is brand new inside, with new appliances, new flooring and carpet, a large deck and covered parking, and a new roof. The home is move-in ready and would be a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Modern ceiling fans improve airflow and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen — New flooring in the kitchen would improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Install new cabinets in kitchen — New cabinets would provide storage and improve the kitchen's functionality ↑
• Both Install new appliances in kitchen — New appliances would improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — New fixtures would improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gale Elementary School F AZ #438/1,109 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Valencia Middle School F AZ #210/218 Nat'l #13,725/14,009 High Cholla High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $76,000 Zillow
• 2025-02-10 Listed $87,900 Zillow