3550 N Courthouse Rd · New Kent, VA 23140

$250,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1978 0.25 ac lot $226/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IN BUSY PROVIDENCE FORGE, THIS HOME HAS BEEN A ONE OWNER HOME SINCE IT WAS BORN. NEWLY CONDITIONED CRAWL SPACE, NEW HEAT PUMP, PLUS there is independently controlled electric heat in every room for the cold natured, without disturbing the rest of the household. NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY WINDOWS AND DOORS, NEW WATERPROOF FLOORS, NEW APPLIANCES, REMODELED AND UPGRADED BATHROOMS, NEW STOVE, DISHWASHER AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW ROOF VENT CAPS, NEW STORM DOORS. REBUILT DECKS, NEW TRIM, NEW PAINT and easy maintenance yard. THIS HOME CAN BE USED COMMERCIALLY IF REZONED, AND NEW KENT ADMIN IS AMENABLE TO MAKING THIS rezone HAPPEN. THE YARD IS FENCED WITH AMPLE PARKING AND MORE parking AVAILABLE FROM THE PUBLIC ROAD LOCATED AT THE REAR OF THE PROPERTY. THIS HOME IS VERY NICE and its location is excellent for walking to all necessities. ITS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING, DINING, BANKING, THE POST OFFICE, medical facilities, hardware, grocery and drug stores AND NUMEROUS AMENITIES OF TOWN LIVING, NOT TO MENTION THE RACE TRAC IS JUST 4 MILES AWAY. Take a look, you will not be disappointed.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Unpaved parking area
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Resale property; Zoned R2
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage shed(s); Unpaved driveway; Fenced backyard (full fence); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking / stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bay window; Dining area; French doors / atrium doors; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.8% in New Kent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• New Kent County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #32 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in New Kent County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Kent County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 11805% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,188 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,108
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -2.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-18,385
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $12,235
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23140

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,930

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $250,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    historical $250,000 1696-char remark
11. 2025-05-23
    historical $2,100
12. 2025-05-17
    listed $2,100
13. 2025-05-12
    historical $2,100
14. 2025-05-04
    historical $2,100
15. 2025-05-02
    listed $2,100
16. 2025-05-02
    listed $2,100
17. 2024-02-05
    soldstatus $233,000 Closed 1091-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    IN BUSY PROVIDENCE FORGE, THIS HOME HAS BEEN A ONE OWNER HOME SINCE IT WAS BORN. NEWLY CONDITIONED CRAWL SPACE, NEW HEAT PUMP, PLUS there is independently controlled electric heat in every room for the cold natured, without disturbing the rest of the household. NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY WINDOWS AND DOORS, NEW WATERPROOF FLOORS, NEW APPLIANCES, REMODELED AND UPGRADED BATHROOMS, NEW STOVE, DISHWASHER AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW ROOF VENT CAPS, NEW STORM DOORS. REBUILT DECKS, NEW TRIM, NEW PAINT and easy maintenance yard. THIS HOME CAN BE USED COMMERCIALLY IF REZONED, AND NEW KENT ADMIN IS AMENABLE TO MAKING THIS rezone HAPPEN. THE YARD IS FENCED WITH AMPLE PARKING AND MORE parking AVAILABLE FROM THE PUBLIC ROAD LOCATED AT THE REAR OF THE PROPERTY. THIS HOME IS VERY NICE and its location is excellent for walking to all necessities. ITS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING, DINING, BANKING, THE POST OFFICE, medical facilities, hardware, grocery and drug stores AND NUMEROUS AMENITIES OF TOWN LIVING, NOT TO MENTION THE RACE TRAC IS JUST 4 MILES AWAY. Take a look, you will not be disappointed.

18. 2024-02-05
    soldstatus $233,000

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    IN BUSY PROVIDENCE FORGE, THIS HOME HAS BEEN A ONE OWNER HOME SINCE IT WAS BORN. NEWLY CONDITIONED CRAWL SPACE, NEW HEAT PUMP, PLUS there is independently controlled electric heat in every room for the cold natured, without disturbing the rest of the household. NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY WINDOWS AND DOORS, NEW WATERPROOF FLOORS, NEW APPLIANCES, REMODELED AND UPGRADED BATHROOMS, NEW STOVE, DISHWASHER AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW ROOF VENT CAPS, NEW STORM DOORS. REBUILT DECKS, NEW TRIM, NEW PAINT and easy maintenance yard. THIS HOME CAN BE USED COMMERCIALLY IF REZONED, AND NEW KENT ADMIN IS AMENABLE TO MAKING THIS rezone HAPPEN. THE YARD IS FENCED WITH AMPLE PARKING AND MORE parking AVAILABLE FROM THE PUBLIC ROAD LOCATED AT THE REAR OF THE PROPERTY. THIS HOME IS VERY NICE and its location is excellent for walking to all necessities. ITS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING, DINING, BANKING, THE POST OFFICE, medical facilities, hardware, grocery and drug stores AND NUMEROUS AMENITIES OF TOWN LIVING, NOT TO MENTION THE RACE TRAC IS JUST 4 MILES AWAY. Take a look, you will not be disappointed.

19. 2024-01-16
    status Pending 1091-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    IN BUSY PROVIDENCE FORGE, THIS HOME HAS BEEN A ONE OWNER HOME SINCE IT WAS BORN. NEWLY CONDITIONED CRAWL SPACE, NEW HEAT PUMP, PLUS there is independently controlled electric heat in every room for the cold natured, without disturbing the rest of the household. NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY WINDOWS AND DOORS, NEW WATERPROOF FLOORS, NEW APPLIANCES, REMODELED AND UPGRADED BATHROOMS, NEW STOVE, DISHWASHER AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW ROOF VENT CAPS, NEW STORM DOORS. REBUILT DECKS, NEW TRIM, NEW PAINT and easy maintenance yard. THIS HOME CAN BE USED COMMERCIALLY IF REZONED, AND NEW KENT ADMIN IS AMENABLE TO MAKING THIS rezone HAPPEN. THE YARD IS FENCED WITH AMPLE PARKING AND MORE parking AVAILABLE FROM THE PUBLIC ROAD LOCATED AT THE REAR OF THE PROPERTY. THIS HOME IS VERY NICE and its location is excellent for walking to all necessities. ITS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING, DINING, BANKING, THE POST OFFICE, medical facilities, hardware, grocery and drug stores AND NUMEROUS AMENITIES OF TOWN LIVING, NOT TO MENTION THE RACE TRAC IS JUST 4 MILES AWAY. Take a look, you will not be disappointed.

20. 2023-07-31
    listed $224,000 Active 1091-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1091 chars)

    IN BUSY PROVIDENCE FORGE, THIS HOME HAS BEEN A ONE OWNER HOME SINCE IT WAS BORN. NEWLY CONDITIONED CRAWL SPACE, NEW HEAT PUMP, PLUS there is independently controlled electric heat in every room for the cold natured, without disturbing the rest of the household. NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY WINDOWS AND DOORS, NEW WATERPROOF FLOORS, NEW APPLIANCES, REMODELED AND UPGRADED BATHROOMS, NEW STOVE, DISHWASHER AND REFRIGERATOR. NEW ROOF VENT CAPS, NEW STORM DOORS. REBUILT DECKS, NEW TRIM, NEW PAINT and easy maintenance yard. THIS HOME CAN BE USED COMMERCIALLY IF REZONED, AND NEW KENT ADMIN IS AMENABLE TO MAKING THIS rezone HAPPEN. THE YARD IS FENCED WITH AMPLE PARKING AND MORE parking AVAILABLE FROM THE PUBLIC ROAD LOCATED AT THE REAR OF THE PROPERTY. THIS HOME IS VERY NICE and its location is excellent for walking to all necessities. ITS WITHIN WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING, DINING, BANKING, THE POST OFFICE, medical facilities, hardware, grocery and drug stores AND NUMEROUS AMENITIES OF TOWN LIVING, NOT TO MENTION THE RACE TRAC IS JUST 4 MILES AWAY. Take a look, you will not be disappointed.

21. 2022-08-08
    listed $224,000 Active
22. 2012-10-22
    listed $134,500
23. 2011-02-24
    listed $124,500
24. 2010-12-25
    historical
25. 2010-12-24
    historical
26. 2007-11-08
    listed $150,000
27. 2007-04-26
    historical
28. 2007-04-26
    historical
29. 2007-04-25
    listed $150,000
30. 2007-04-25
    listed $150,000
31. 2006-08-24
    listed $150,000
32. 2006-08-24
    listed $150,000
33. 2004-06-16
    listed $139,000
34. 1996-11-21
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$732/yr (+$61/mo · 55.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $64
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $4,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Kent County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102610
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,460
• Composite: 57.73/100
• National rank: #1055
• State rank: #32 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Kent

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,533

Population outlook (New Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,555 people
• By 2030: 26,549 · +8.1%
• By 2040: 30,259 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 33,471 · +36.3%
• By 2075: 41,261 · +68.0%
• By 2100: 44,339 · +80.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Kent

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.7% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.37%
• Current HPI: 171.5574
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+2073.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Coming Soon $250,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-05-23 Rental Removed $2,100 RENTSPREE
• 2025-05-17 Listed for Rent $2,100 RENTSPREE
• 2025-05-12 Rental Removed $2,100 CVRMLS
• 2025-05-04 Rental Removed $2,100 RENTSPREE
• 2025-05-02 Listed for Rent $2,100 RENTSPREE
• 2025-05-02 Listed for Rent $2,100 CVRMLS
• 2024-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $233,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-05 Sold (MLS) $233,000 WMLS
• 2024-01-16 Pending — WMLS
• 2023-07-31 Listed $224,000 WMLS
• 2022-08-08 Listed $224,000 WMLS
• 2012-10-22 Listed $134,500 WMLS
• 2011-02-24 Listed $124,500 WMLS
• 2010-12-25 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2010-12-24 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-11-08 Listed $150,000 WMLS
• 2007-04-26 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-04-26 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-04-25 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-04-25 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-08-24 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 2006-08-24 Listed $150,000 CVRMLS
• 2004-06-16 Listed $139,000 WMLS
• 1996-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,318 · +31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.