4252 Lemon St NE · Salem, OR 97305

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 274 Days on market

Built 2002 $53/sqft · 28% above area Est $59k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open floorplan on this 2002 built home. Spacious bedrooms, primary has 2 closets, roomy bathroom with linen closet. Den (or bed #3), Large laundry room. Carport with an extra space for another car or make it an enclosed patio! Shop/storage room, storage shed in the yard. Rent includes water, sewer, garbage and clubhouse usage.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Roomy bathroom
• Large laundry room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIMARY HAS 2 CLOSETS
• ROOMY BATHROOM
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• CARPORT WITH EXTRA SPACE
• SHOP STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.5% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.67%
• DSCR: 4.37
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,750
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 27.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4353 Lemon St NE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-1%)	4mo	$57,500	$41	90
5422 Portland Rd NE #80	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	1mo	$81,000	$60	86
5422 Portland Rd NE #47	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	83
5422 Portland Rd NE #24	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$60,000	$42	83
5422 Portland Rd NE #139	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	3mo	$85,750	$57	78
5287 Gold Dust St #222	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (0%)	4mo	$136,850	$97	77
5422 Portland Rd NE #37	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-8%)	4mo	$39,000	$30	77
5422 Portland Rd NE #89	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+9%)	6mo	$104,000	$68	73
4374 Larch Lp NE	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+9%)	0mo	$99,900	$65	72
5279 Gold Dust St NE #220	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	4mo	$130,000	$86	68
5151 Copper Creek Loop #183	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$130,000	$86	67
4230 Hazelgreen Rd NE #52	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	3mo	$32,000	$27	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $72,241
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.18×
• Total profit: $171,709
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $1,324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $681

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,260	$2.58	13d	20	0.48mi
4115 Geranium Loop NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1316	$2,250	$1.71	13d	1	0.75mi
4927 Orbit Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,395	$1.50	21d	1	0.86mi
5034 Armstrong Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	43d	1	0.91mi
4823 Settlers Dr NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1228	$2,395	$1.95	43d	1	0.91mi
5150 Constellation Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,795	$1.50	13d	1	1.01mi
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,995	$2.15	13d	25	1.03mi
4624 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	963	$2,325	$2.41	13d	10	1.16mi
4473 47th Ave NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 274 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 266 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 265 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    status Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Open floorplan on this 2002 built home. Spacious bedrooms, primary has 2 closets, roomy bathroom with linen closet. Den (or bed #3), Large laundry room. Carport with an extra space for another car or make it an enclosed patio! Shop/storage room, storage shed in the yard. Rent includes water, sewer, garbage and clubhouse usage.

16. 2026-03-02
    historical Active under Contract 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Open floorplan on this 2002 built home. Spacious bedrooms, primary has 2 closets, roomy bathroom with linen closet. Den (or bed #3), Large laundry room. Carport with an extra space for another car or make it an enclosed patio! Shop/storage room, storage shed in the yard. Rent includes water, sewer, garbage and clubhouse usage.

17. 2025-12-05
    price $75,000 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Open floorplan on this 2002 built home. Spacious bedrooms, primary has 2 closets, roomy bathroom with linen closet. Den (or bed #3), Large laundry room. Carport with an extra space for another car or make it an enclosed patio! Shop/storage room, storage shed in the yard. Rent includes water, sewer, garbage and clubhouse usage.

18. 2025-09-17
    listed $98,000 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    Open floorplan on this 2002 built home. Spacious bedrooms, primary has 2 closets, roomy bathroom with linen closet. Den (or bed #3), Large laundry room. Carport with an extra space for another car or make it an enclosed patio! Shop/storage room, storage shed in the yard. Rent includes water, sewer, garbage and clubhouse usage.

19. 2016-08-25
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    A spacious open floor plan in this 2002 Double Wide. Bright and clean with vaulted ceilings throughout. Large master bedroom. Besides a second bedroom, there is a den area suitable for many uses. Includes washer and dryer, refrigerator, stove, newer window coverings. Located in an active community of Salem Mobile Estates. Yard with sprinkler system in place. A must see to appreciate.

20. 2016-08-18
    historical Active under Contract 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    A spacious open floor plan in this 2002 Double Wide. Bright and clean with vaulted ceilings throughout. Large master bedroom. Besides a second bedroom, there is a den area suitable for many uses. Includes washer and dryer, refrigerator, stove, newer window coverings. Located in an active community of Salem Mobile Estates. Yard with sprinkler system in place. A must see to appreciate.

21. 2016-08-09
    listed $55,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    A spacious open floor plan in this 2002 Double Wide. Bright and clean with vaulted ceilings throughout. Large master bedroom. Besides a second bedroom, there is a den area suitable for many uses. Includes washer and dryer, refrigerator, stove, newer window coverings. Located in an active community of Salem Mobile Estates. Yard with sprinkler system in place. A must see to appreciate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $15,643
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,754
• After-tax cash flow: $12,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• City population: 193,601
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+36.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $75,000 WVMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $98,000 WVMLS
• 2016-08-25 Sold (MLS) $55,000 WVMLS
• 2016-08-18 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2016-08-09 Listed $55,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.