8851 SE Shadow Brook Ct Unit SP 85 · Oatfield, OR 97015

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition $117/sqft · 12% above area Est $125k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3bdrm/2bath manufactured home has one of the best spots in the entire park! This move-in ready home has been meticulously maintained and has new top-of-the-line pex plumbing and a newer Smart System HVAC that offers efficient heating & cooling. This home is light and bright and feels so spacious with it's vaulted ceilings and 2 skylights. The primary bedroom has a vaulted ceiling, a walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks. Two other bedrooms and a second full bath give you plenty of space. Outside there is a nice deck to relax or enjoy your morning coffee in your fenced private backyard while enjoying your own private little oasis. The beautiful yard is a gardener's paradise and features a brand new retaining wall with freshly planted flowers like sweet alyssum, star jasmine, peonies, beautiful ferns, pink lilac trees, butterfly bushes, skip laurels, and many other established perennials and shrubs for spring through summer enjoyment.

Key facts

• Walk in closet
• Vaulted ceilings
• Built 1988

Tags

• TOP OF THE LINE PEX PLUMBING
• NEWER SMART SYSTEM HVAC
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH WITH DUAL SINKS
• FENCED PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.7% in Oatfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#49 in OR, #1,363 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.87%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,563
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 12.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8630 SE Frontier Ct #40	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-1%)	4mo	$140,000	$118	90
16539 SE Hearthwood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,107 (-8%)	14mo	$135,000	$122	72
16491 SE 80th Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	11mo	$126,300	$110	65
16350 SE 84th Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	16mo	$159,000	$123	64
16830 SE 80th Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	11mo	$139,900	$108	64
16230 SE 84th Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-11%)	9mo	$97,000	$91	64
8423 SE Hanna Ct #5	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	9mo	$130,000	$97	62
16470 SE 80th Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	18mo	$135,000	$110	62
16130 SE 84th Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	12mo	$112,500	$107	59
8140 SE Poppy St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	20mo	$65,000	$62	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $19,673
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $68,730
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $778	-5% $730	+0% $681	+5% $633	+10% $585
Rent	-10% $517	-5% $599	+0% $681	+5% $764	+10% $846
Rate	-1.0pp $752	-0.5pp $717	base $681	+0.5pp $645	+1.0pp $608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$1,795	$2.52	23d	8	0.22mi
16500 SE 82nd Dr Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$2,255	$2.24	0d	5	0.25mi
17400 Webster Rd Gladstone, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,512	$1.89	16d	2	0.80mi
18181 Webster Rd Gladstone, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$2,395	$3.10	9d	11	1.08mi
SE Luella Ln Oatfield, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	4d	4	1.15mi
8106 SE Lake Rd Portland, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,622	$2.29	0d	16	1.22mi
10555 SE Mather Rd Clackamas, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$1,999	$2.43	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    status Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    This 3bdrm/2bath manufactured home has one of the best spots in the entire park! This move-in ready home has been meticulously maintained and has new top-of-the-line pex plumbing and a newer Smart System HVAC that offers efficient heating & cooling. This home is light and bright and feels so spacious with it's vaulted ceilings and 2 skylights. The primary bedroom has a vaulted ceiling, a walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks. Two other bedrooms and a second full bath give you plenty of space. Outside there is a nice deck to relax or enjoy your morning coffee in your fenced private backyard while enjoying your own private little oasis. The beautiful yard is a gardener's paradise and features a brand new retaining wall with freshly planted flowers like sweet alyssum, star jasmine, peonies, beautiful ferns, pink lilac trees, butterfly bushes, skip laurels, and many other established perennials and shrubs for spring through summer enjoyment.

16. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    This 3bdrm/2bath manufactured home has one of the best spots in the entire park! This move-in ready home has been meticulously maintained and has new top-of-the-line pex plumbing and a newer Smart System HVAC that offers efficient heating & cooling. This home is light and bright and feels so spacious with it's vaulted ceilings and 2 skylights. The primary bedroom has a vaulted ceiling, a walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks. Two other bedrooms and a second full bath give you plenty of space. Outside there is a nice deck to relax or enjoy your morning coffee in your fenced private backyard while enjoying your own private little oasis. The beautiful yard is a gardener's paradise and features a brand new retaining wall with freshly planted flowers like sweet alyssum, star jasmine, peonies, beautiful ferns, pink lilac trees, butterfly bushes, skip laurels, and many other established perennials and shrubs for spring through summer enjoyment.

17. 2026-04-18
    listed $139,900 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    This 3bdrm/2bath manufactured home has one of the best spots in the entire park! This move-in ready home has been meticulously maintained and has new top-of-the-line pex plumbing and a newer Smart System HVAC that offers efficient heating & cooling. This home is light and bright and feels so spacious with it's vaulted ceilings and 2 skylights. The primary bedroom has a vaulted ceiling, a walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks. Two other bedrooms and a second full bath give you plenty of space. Outside there is a nice deck to relax or enjoy your morning coffee in your fenced private backyard while enjoying your own private little oasis. The beautiful yard is a gardener's paradise and features a brand new retaining wall with freshly planted flowers like sweet alyssum, star jasmine, peonies, beautiful ferns, pink lilac trees, butterfly bushes, skip laurels, and many other established perennials and shrubs for spring through summer enjoyment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $6,326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,518
• After-tax cash flow: $6,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home offers a spacious and well-maintained living environment with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and reflects well on the home.
• Resale Replace gutters — Maintains the home's appearance and prevents water damage.
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and reflects well on the home. ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Maintains the home's appearance and prevents water damage. ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oatfield

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1363

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oatfield, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 31,160
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $139,900 RMLS