14609 Valentin Dr · Horizon City, TX 79928

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2014 6,682 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a home that perfectly balances spacious living with low-maintenance ease. This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is designed for those who appreciate both privacy and accessibility. Interior Highlights: Flexible Living: Featuring four generous bedrooms and a versatile room--perfect for a home office, gym, or playroom. Stylish Flooring: A seamless blend of cozy carpets and durable tile throughout ensures comfort in every room. Total Climate Control: Stay cool year-round with the luxury of refrigerated air. The Great Outdoors Privacy First: The property is fully fenced, featuring a secure front enclosure for added peace of mind and a fenced in back yard. Low-Maintenance Lan

Key facts

• Refrigerated air
• Fully fenced
• 6,682 sq ft lot

Tags

• REFRIGERATED AIR
• FULLY FENCED
• PRIVATE BACKYARD SANCTUARY
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• DEDICATED STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built on a slab foundation
• Exterior features: Walled backyard; Back yard access; Open patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Fan hood; Gas cooktop
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Refrigerated cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Handicap access; Walk-in closets; Blinds; Double-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#619 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ricardo Estrada Middle (math 15% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 518 students, 91% FRL); Horizon H S (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 1,677 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 59% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 2088 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,027 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.60%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-49,700
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-62,826
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79928

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 2088
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,916/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $174,190

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-170	+0% $-231	+5% $-292	+10% $-353
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-288	+0% $-231	+5% $-174	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-176	base $-231	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $215,000 Active
4. 2017-05-11
   soldstatus
5. 2003-06-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,916 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,019/yr (+$168/mo · 105.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,916
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,601
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horizon City

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #619
• US rank: #11815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 86,599
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 86,599
• Household income: $76,643
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 838.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 39% White 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.72%
• Current HPI: 200.6454
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $215,000 GEPARMLS
• 2017-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,916 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.