5789 Fm 417 E · Huxley, TX 75973

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2014

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

WELL CARED FOR AND LOVED! Immaculate 3/2 DWMH, 2014, Split Floor Plan, LRG LR/DR/Kitchen Combo, Breakfast Bar-Chair Height, Nice Closets, FP, Front and Porch with Ramp, Back Door Area has Ramp Also. No Land is Included. FOR SALE TO BE MOVED.

Key facts

• Built 2014
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#863 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Shelbyville ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #159 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.18%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,888
• Equity at exit: $18,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $31,731
• Equity at exit: $15,675

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75973

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,073/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $98,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $98,000 Active 241-char remark
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $98,000 Active 241-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,073 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,793 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 67.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,073
• − Insurance: −$1,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $1,949
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$468
• After-tax cash flow: $2,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839960
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,783
• Composite: 43.68/100
• National rank: #2956
• State rank: #159 of 826 in TX

Livability — Huxley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #863
• US rank: #15570

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,564

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,199 people
• By 2030: 24,986 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 24,646 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 24,144 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 22,328 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 18,734 · -25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Scottish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.5% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.3pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+44.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.07%
• Current HPI: 154.4854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $98,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $98,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,073 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.