125 Madrid Rd · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$239,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1961 0.70 ac lot $175/sqft · 9% above area Est $220k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home sits on almost 3 quarters of an acre. Features 1368 sqft of living space, 3 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bathroom and a large living area. A short stroll down the street in this quiet neighborhood is a huge open field and playground.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Quartz countertops
• Metal roof

Tags

• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• METAL ROOF
• SHED
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.7 acres; Directions: Take Hwy 29 N, left on Muscogee, right onto Madrid; house will be on the left.
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Copper wiring for electric; Septic tank; Paved road access (county maintained)
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Detached property; Resale condition; Homestead-eligible
• Construction: Block construction; Off-grade foundation; Metal roof; Building area approx. 1,368 total
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Yard building (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen with island (updated within 1 year; all new); Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher and appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14.5' x 11'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12.5' x 11')
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Remodeled bathrooms (updated within 1 year; all new)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater; ENERGY STAR qualified water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jim Allen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 677 students, 61% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $239k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,771 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,841
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: 8.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 San Carlos Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (+5%)	13mo	$220,000	$154	65
1120 Muscogee Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,449 (+6%)	3mo	$240,000	$166	64
173 Navarro Rd	0.49mi	4/1.5	1,404 (+3%)	13mo	$280,500	$200	60
1037 Isabella Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-11%)	9mo	$280,000	$230	56
1121 Muscogee Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,276 (-7%)	23mo	$205,000	$161	49
143 Santa Rosa Rd	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-14%)	12mo	$140,000	$119	47
200 San Carlos Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (+12%)	22mo	$275,000	$180	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-25,199
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,734
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,867

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $281	+0% $214	+5% $146	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $129	+0% $214	+5% $298	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $274	base $214	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $239,000 Active 565-char remark
17. 2019-10-21
    soldstatus $68,000
18. 2019-10-18
    soldstatus $68,000 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home sits on almost 3 quarters of an acre. Features 1368 sqft of living space, 3 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bathroom and a large living area. A short stroll down the street in this quiet neighborhood is a huge open field and playground.

19. 2019-07-21
    listed $76,000 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    This home sits on almost 3 quarters of an acre. Features 1368 sqft of living space, 3 spacious bedrooms, 1 full bathroom and a large living area. A short stroll down the street in this quiet neighborhood is a huge open field and playground.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$1,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $2,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+214.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $239,000 PARMLS
• 2019-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-18 Sold (MLS) $68,000 PARMLS
• 2019-07-21 Listed $76,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,467 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.