9403 Pierce Ln #24 · Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

Built 1988 Average condition $57/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lazy Acres, a 55+ community in Sedro-Woolley offering affordable living in a convenient central location. This well-designed double-wide features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with a functional layout ready for its new owners. Tucked near the end of a cul-de-sac, the home offers a peaceful setting with a covered porch that’s perfect for relaxing and ample parking for added convenience. Enjoy being just minutes from shopping, dining, medical facilities, and easy access to Highway 20. An additional storage shed provides plenty of room for tools, hobbies, or extra belongings. Come experience the comfort, value, and community that Lazy Acres Park has to offer.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Ample parking
• Central location

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• CUL-DE-SAC
• COVERED PORCH
• AMPLE PARKING
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 2.4% in Sedro-Woolley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.16%
• DSCR: 4.30
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,948
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -64.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9403 Pierce Ln #1	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-9%)	3mo	$65,000	$58	77
920 Carriage Ct #59	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-4%)	6mo	$159,000	$134	67
886 Carriage Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+5%)	2mo	$188,600	$146	66
1518 Hoehn Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	16mo	$490,000	$393	60
24442 Wicker Rd #37	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+10%)	10mo	$184,900	$137	60
24919 Hoehn Rd #65	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+5%)	7mo	$160,000	$123	60
9079 Fruitdale Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-3%)	20mo	$390,000	$327	59
868 Carriage Ct #35	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-4%)	14mo	$198,000	$167	58
24424 Wicker Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-12%)	3mo	$250,000	$231	57
1133 State St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+14%)	1mo	$250,000	$178	54
24919 Hoehn Rd #45	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+1%)	16mo	$152,000	$122	48
24919 Hoehn Rd #42	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	2mo	$202,000	$150	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $115,301
• Equity at exit: $63,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.2%
• Equity multiple: 15.23×
• Total profit: $278,941
• Equity at exit: $135,995

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1,211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,260	-5% $1,235	+0% $1,211	+5% $1,187	+10% $1,163
Rent	-10% $1,042	-5% $1,126	+0% $1,211	+5% $1,296	+10% $1,381
Rate	-1.0pp $1,246	-0.5pp $1,229	base $1,211	+0.5pp $1,193	+1.0pp $1,175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1133 Wicker Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,695	$2.34	21d	3	0.30mi
1129 State St Unit 11292 Sedro-Woolley, WA	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,850	$1.76	44d	1	0.50mi
320 Birchwood Ln Sedro-Woolley, WA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	44d	1	0.82mi
413 Rowland Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	2.0	2.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $70,000 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $70,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $88,880
17. 2026-04-05
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $14,270
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,425
• After-tax cash flow: $11,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Lazy Acres Park requires moderate repairs and updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor kitchen countertops — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — slight wear
• Minor exterior siding — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace carpeting — improves living space
• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes space
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizes space
• Resale repair exterior siding — enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen countertops · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace carpeting — improves living space ↑
• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes space ↑
• Resale update bathroom fixtures — modernizes space ↑
• Resale repair exterior siding — enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Sedro-Woolley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $88,880 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Listed $95,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid