515 Murray Hill Dr · Churchill, OH 44505

$215,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1961 0.26 ac lot $132/sqft · 56% above area Est $225k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Schedule your private showing today to experience this beautifully remodeled split-level home in the heart of Liberty Township, perfectly located just steps from local schools, shopping, and dining. This inviting home offers generous space for entertaining with expansive living and dining areas highlighted by newly installed luxury vinyl flooring and a cozy fireplace, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The updated kitchen features brand-new appliances, granite countertops, and new cabinetry, seamlessly blending style and functionality. Three spacious bedrooms provide comfortable living, including a primary suite with a private en-suite bathroom, while newly remodeled bathrooms throug

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• New cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• REMODELED SPLIT-LEVEL HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETRY
• NEWLY REMODELED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Updated/remodeled home
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt fiberglass roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.2559 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Remodeled/updated condition; Living room fireplace with insert

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($877/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Churchill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#708 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Liberty Local (suburban): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #555 of 656 in OH (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,852/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $215k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $185,197 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,066
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -13.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Murray Hill Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,624 (0%)	8mo	$92,000	$57	93
425 Laurel St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,800 (+11%)	1mo	$170,000	$94	66
456 Laurel St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,420 (-13%)	9mo	$187,100	$132	58
569 Northlawn Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-5%)	19mo	$190,000	$124	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-30,214
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,440
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44505

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,075/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $134	+0% $73	+5% $12	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $0	+0% $73	+5% $146	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $128	base $73	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4779 Logan Arms Dr Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,300	$1.50	14d	1	1.06mi
465 Gypsy Ln Youngstown, OH	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,120	$0.85	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $215,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-05-04
    historical
11. 2026-04-21
    price $195,000
12. 2026-03-19
    listed $199,000 Active
13. 2026-03-16
    historical
14. 2026-02-16
    price $210,000
15. 2026-01-13
    listed $220,000 Active
16. 2025-10-06
    soldstatus $92,000 Closed
17. 2025-10-06
    soldstatus $92,000
18. 2025-09-08
    status Pending
19. 2025-09-04
    listed $119,000 Active
20. 2013-08-29
    soldstatus $70,000
21. 1998-03-04
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$640/yr (+$53/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,075
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$667
• After-tax cash flow: $1,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Local
• NCES district ID: 3905019
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $48,604
• Composite: 30.59/100
• National rank: #6202
• State rank: #555 of 656 in OH

Livability — Churchill

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #708
• US rank: #12768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 15,066
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,449
• Household income: $36,480
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.8

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 37% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.64%
• Current HPI: 192.3375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+159.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $215,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $195,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-19 Listed $199,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $210,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-01-13 Listed $220,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-06 Sold (MLS) $92,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-08 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-09-04 Listed $119,000 MLSNOW
• 2013-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,075 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.