3553 Sky Pl · Seguin, TX 78155

$213,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $220k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Single-story living
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $500 annually; Association transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Gas supplied by GVEC; Electricity supplied by GVEC; Water supplied by SHWS; Sewer supplied by SHWS; City garbage service
• Home design: New construction by Lennar; Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Park/playground nearby; Water system; Sewer system; City garbage service

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2 approx. 10 x 11; Bedroom 3 approx. 10 x 13; Bedroom 4 approx. 12 x 11; Primary bedroom approx. 16 x 13
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; Laundry room on main level; 1 living area; All bedrooms downstairs; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry/utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcqueeney El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 314 students, 84% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $192,400 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3568 Canyon Rdg	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$237,999	$129	96
3553 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$218,999	$118	96
3561 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$219,999	$119	95
3557 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	1mo	$213,999	$114	92
736 Canyon Run	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	2mo	$205,999	$111	91
3548 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+4%)	1mo	$221,999	$116	89
3573 Canyon Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	3mo	$223,999	$119	89
3556 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	1mo	$200,999	$120	82
3572 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	1mo	$189,999	$113	81
3580 Canyon Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	2mo	$210,999	$126	79
3549 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	3mo	$200,999	$120	79
3565 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	3mo	$203,999	$122	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-36,523
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-39,067
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$267 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $213,863

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $73	+0% $-1	+5% $-75	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-153	-5% $-77	+0% $-1	+5% $75	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $53	base $-1	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	0d	1	0.08mi
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.35mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	0d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $213,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $213,999 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $213,999 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $213,999 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $213,999 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $213,999 Price Change 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $213,999 Price Change 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $213,999 Price Change 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $213,999 Price Change 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $213,999 Price Change 13 DOM

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

11. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on market $213,999 Price Change 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $215,999 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,999 New 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $215,999 New
15. 2026-05-20
    price $215,999 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-05-19
    listed $232,999 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$3,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$865
• After-tax cash flow: $853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious open-concept layout and four bedrooms, including a luxurious owner's suite. The home is set to be completed in August 2026.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $213,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
• 2026-05-21 Listed $215,999 LERA
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $215,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Listed $232,999 Zillow