Is 3553 Sky Pl in Seguin, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.3% cap rate and $-7/mo modeled cash flow at a $219,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3553 Sky Pl?

The modeled cap rate is 6.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,968/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.04

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +13.1/30.0
ARV discount +8.4/15.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
1% rule +3.9/10.0
DSCR +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
Rent growth +3.0/5.0
Schools +2.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$219,999

3553 Sky Pl · Seguin, TX 78155

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $119/sqft · at area comps Est $224k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

Lavish owner's suite
Single-story living
Full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-90/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (0.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (10.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $197k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Mcqueeney El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 314 students, 84% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $196,819 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.89% ✗
Cap rate: 6.25%
Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
DSCR: 0.99
GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $224,499
List price: $219,999
Delta: -2.00%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3553 Sky Pl	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$219,999	$119	99
3577 Sky Pl	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	3mo	$223,999	$121	95
3557 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	4mo	$213,999	$114	89
3565 Sky Pl	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+4%)	2mo	$214,999	$112	88
3548 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+4%)	4mo	$221,999	$116	87
3561 Sky Pl	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	2mo	$197,999	$118	82
3552 Sky Pl	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$198,999	$119	82
3569 Sky Pl	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	2mo	$196,999	$118	80
3556 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	4mo	$200,999	$120	79
3572 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	4mo	$189,999	$113	78
3601 Canyon Rdg	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$198,999	$119	78
3580 Canyon Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	5mo	$210,999	$126	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -17.6%
Equity multiple: 0.38×
Total profit: $-37,954
Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

IRR: -11.6%
Equity multiple: 0.33×
Total profit: $-41,018
Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 29 active · 23 under contract
Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $226,299 ($124/sqft)
Median days on market: 54 d
This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

Rents YoY: 2.0%
Active inventory: 1833
Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,968 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
Insurance: −$92
HOA: −$42
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $218,915

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $69	+0% $-7	+5% $-84	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-85	+0% $-7	+5% $70	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $48	base $-7	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $55,000
Closing costs: $6,600
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3557 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$1,850	$0.98	0d	1	0.08mi
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	93d	1	0.08mi
3473 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,795	$1.23	29d	1	0.16mi
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	139d	1	0.35mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1638	$2,500	$1.53	4d	1	1.05mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	70d	1	1.05mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Down payment resources available
HOA & community: Mandatory HOAAnnual HOA fee of $500Association transfer fee: $450

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garage
Utilities: Water system (SHWS)Sewer system (SHWS)Gas supplied by GVECElectricity supplied by GVECCity garbage service
Home design: New construction by LennarSingle-family property
Construction: Brick, siding, and cement fiber exteriorSlab foundationComposition roofApproximate age: new
Exterior features: Park/playground nearby

Interior

Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 11Bedroom 3: 10 x 13Bedroom 4: 12 x 11Master bedroom dimensions: 16 x 13
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor planBreakfast bar1 living areaUtility room insideLaundry room on main levelAll bedrooms downstairsWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room inside

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-18

days on market $219,999 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-17

statusdays on market $219,999 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 70 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 69 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 68 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 67 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 66 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 65 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 64 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 63 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $219,999 Back on Market 62 DOM
2026-08-06

status $219,999 Back on Market 60 DOM
2026-08-04

statusdays on market $219,999 Pending 60 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $219,999 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $219,999 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $219,999 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $219,999 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-28

statusdays on market $219,999 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $219,999 Price Change 51 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $219,999 Price Change 49 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $219,999 Price Change 48 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $219,999 Price Change 47 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $219,999 Price Change 46 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $219,999 Price Change 45 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $219,999 Price Change 43 DOM
2026-07-18

pricestatusdays on market $219,999 Price Change 42 DOM
2026-07-16

pricestatus $237,999 Back on Market 41 DOM

Show marketing remark (416 chars)

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-07-01

status $213,999 Pending 41 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $213,999 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $213,999 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $213,999 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $213,999 Active 38 DOM

Show marketing remark (416 chars)

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-06-27

days on market $213,999 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $213,999 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $213,999 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $213,999 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $213,999 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $213,999 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $213,999 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $213,999 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-13

statusdays on market $213,999 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $213,999 Price Change 19 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $213,999 Price Change 18 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $213,999 Price Change 17 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $213,999 Price Change 14 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $213,999 Price Change 13 DOM

Show marketing remark (416 chars)

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-06-02

pricestatusdays on market $213,999 Price Change 12 DOM
2026-06-01

statusdays on market $215,999 Active 11 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $215,999 New 10 DOM
2026-05-21

listed $215,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,618
− Mortgage interest: −$12,323
− Property taxes: −$3,300
− Insurance: −$1,100
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
− Management: −$1,889
− HOA: −$504
− Depreciation: −$6,400
Taxable loss: −$3,788

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
After-tax cash flow: $819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious open-concept layout and four bedrooms, including a luxurious owner's suite. The home is set to be completed in August 2026.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcqueeney El F TX #3,836/4,322 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle Briesemeister Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Seguin H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Seguin ISD
NCES district ID: 4839690
Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $46,210
Composite: 24.17/100
National rank: #7738
State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

Score: 66/100
State rank: #592
US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Seguin, TX
County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
City population: 55,600
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 55,600
Household income: $71,039
Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 196,854 people
By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
Current HPI: 160.5435
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

2026-07-17 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
2026-07-16 Price Changed $219,999 Zillow
2026-07-16 Price Changed $237,999 LERA
2026-07-16 Relisted — LERA
2026-07-15 Relisted — Zillow
2026-07-15 Price Changed $237,999 Zillow
2026-07-01 Pending — LERA
2026-06-28 Delisted — Zillow
2026-06-03 Price Changed $213,999 Zillow
2026-06-03 Price Changed $213,999 LERA
2026-05-21 Listed $215,999 LERA
2026-05-20 Price Changed $215,999 Zillow
2026-05-19 Listed $232,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…