835 Bogie Ln SW · Carolina Shores, NC 28467

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,598 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2021 9,453 sqft lot Est $241k · 14% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Carolina Shores/Calabash - Beautiful lot in the Village at Calabash. Just a short few minutes to the town of Calabash in a lovely development of manufactured homes. Public Water and Sewer as well as paved City Streets, Clubhouse, Pool and Common Area Maintenance by reasonable Property Owners Association. Property is slightly wooded and high and dry. Only a few miles from Sunset Beach, No. Myrtle Beach and many golf courses. Priced to sell!!!

Key facts

• Upgraded lighting
• Large eat-in island
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• UPGRADED LIGHTING
• LARGE EAT-IN ISLAND
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• CUSTOM PULL-OUT SHELVING
• FREESTANDING SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200 (about $16.67/month); Community clubhouse; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one-level); Entry at level 1; Located in Village At Calabash subdivision; Facing direction: see remarks
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Patio; Front porch; Shed(s); Has view; No fencing; Street lights (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bathroom
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Kitchen island; Ceiling fans; Pantry; Window coverings; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Carolina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#352 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jessie Mae Monroe Elementary (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 99% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 703 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $275k implies a 686% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,729 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,298
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Watson Ave SW	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-5%)	6mo	$225,000	$149	82
831 Bogie Ln	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,704 (+7%)	15mo	$253,000	$148	71
815 Watson Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+11%)	10mo	$223,000	$126	71
891 Palmer Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+12%)	1mo	$260,000	$145	69
814 Carolina St SW	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-1%)	1mo	$258,000	$163	67
845 Watson Ave SW	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+13%)	3mo	$273,000	$151	64
1040 Putting Ln SW	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-1%)	11mo	$278,000	$177	54
978 Palmer Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	4mo	$249,000	$178	51
985 Waterview Ln SW	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,506 (-6%)	19mo	$234,000	$155	50
1024 Palm Ct SW	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+5%)	6mo	$196,000	$117	50
975 Waterview Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-11%)	12mo	$265,000	$186	48
759 Carolina St SW	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,820 (+14%)	8mo	$198,000	$109	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,755
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,490
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28467

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $274,733

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $76	+0% $-2	+5% $-79	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-86	+0% $-2	+5% $83	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $68	base $-2	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1016 Harbor Dr Calabash, NC	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,400	$1.35	16d	1	0.64mi
31 Quaker Ridge Dr Calabash, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1411	$2,292	$1.62	23d	51	0.69mi
1035 Brightwater Way Calabash, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1327	$2,145	$1.62	25d	1	0.78mi
70 Callaway Dr NW OCEAN ISL BCH, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1324	$1,882	$1.42	16d	35	0.84mi
2033 Wild Indigo CIR NW Calabash, NC	3.0	3.0	1457	$1,775	$1.22	25d	1	0.88mi
614 Silos Way Carolina Shores, NC	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	25d	1	0.92mi
1063 Harbor Dr Calabash, NC	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,200	$1.55	23d	1	1.09mi
240 Woodlands Way #17 Calabash, NC	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,800	$1.53	16d	1	1.14mi
834 Greenwood Ct Calabash, NC	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,100	$1.42	16d	1	1.39mi
395 S Crow Creek Dr NW Calabash, NC	2.0	2.0	1162	$1,550	$1.33	16d	1	1.42mi
1420 Sherman Dr Calabash, NC	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$770	$0.76	16d	3	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 695-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,395 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$860/yr (+$72/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $1,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Carolina Shores

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #13907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carolina Shores, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 13,313
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,313
• Household income: $75,341
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.90%
• Current HPI: 133.7186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+554.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $275,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-02 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-04-10 Listed $32,000 Hive MLS
• 2011-12-01 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2010-12-31 Listed $29,900 Hive MLS
• 2006-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+31.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,395 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.