523 Emerson St · Watertown, NY 13601

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1880 3,900 sqft lot $33/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 1400 square foot house has 4 bedroom and 1 bath. Looking for it's new owners. Property does need some work. But what can you make it into?

Key facts

• 3,900 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.19%
• DSCR: 4.84
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,198
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -67.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
523 Emerson St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,498 (0%)	1mo	$47,100	$31	100
646 Cooper St	0.61mi	4/1.0	1,519 (+1%)	2mo	$195,000	$128	67
208 Farwell St	0.45mi	4/1.5	1,610 (+8%)	1mo	$162,900	$101	64
211 W Lynde St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (+4%)	1mo	$190,000	$122	59
244 N Rutland St	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,693 (+13%)	1mo	$233,200	$138	58
1212 Boyd St	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,367 (-9%)	0mo	$185,880	$136	50
380 Brainard St	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,664 (+11%)	1mo	$268,000	$161	50
202 Michigan Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	1mo	$89,000	$63	50
626 Mill St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,716 (+15%)	0mo	$75,000	$44	48
632 Burlington St	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,319 (-12%)	1mo	$209,000	$158	44
1157 Harrison St	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,664 (+11%)	2mo	$240,000	$144	40
1130 Boyd St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (+14%)	0mo	$216,025	$126	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $65,086
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 96.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.91×
• Total profit: $180,741
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $879/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $1,006

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,034	-5% $1,020	+0% $1,006	+5% $991	+10% $977
Rent	-10% $869	-5% $937	+0% $1,006	+5% $1,074	+10% $1,142
Rate	-1.0pp $1,031	-0.5pp $1,018	base $1,006	+0.5pp $993	+1.0pp $979

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.15mi
621 Academy St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,600	$0.97	44d	1	0.31mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	44d	1	0.38mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	44d	1	0.38mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	44d	1	0.49mi
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	44d	1	0.55mi
256 Michigan Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,626	$1.13	44d	9	0.83mi
1815 Olmstead Dr Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1380	$1,676	$1.21	44d	6	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   This 1400 square foot house has 4 bedroom and 1 bath. Looking for it's new owners. Property does need some work. But what can you make it into?

2. 2026-02-25
   price $50,000 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   This 1400 square foot house has 4 bedroom and 1 bath. Looking for it's new owners. Property does need some work. But what can you make it into?

3. 2026-02-21
   price $55,000 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   This 1400 square foot house has 4 bedroom and 1 bath. Looking for it's new owners. Property does need some work. But what can you make it into?

4. 2025-12-24
   price $60,000 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   This 1400 square foot house has 4 bedroom and 1 bath. Looking for it's new owners. Property does need some work. But what can you make it into?

5. 2025-11-10
   listed $65,000 Active 143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (143 chars)

   This 1400 square foot house has 4 bedroom and 1 bath. Looking for it's new owners. Property does need some work. But what can you make it into?

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $879 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$879
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,878
• After-tax cash flow: $9,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $50,000 CNYIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $55,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $60,000 CNYIS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $65,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $879 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.