133 Deer Lake Cir · Ormond Beach, FL 32174

$130,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the highly sought-after Aberdeen community in Ormond Beach, this 2001 MERT manufactured home offers massive living space and key modern upgrades. At 56x40, this home is significantly larger than your average double-wide, providing a bright and open layout perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Property Features Price: $125,000 Size: 56x40 (Double-wide) Layout: 3 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms Flooring: Beautiful wooden floors throughout (Kitchen and Dining areas feature easy-to-maintain surfaces). Windows: High-quality windows with a Lifetime Warranty included. Brand New Upgrades Kitchen: New stove and refrigerator. HVAC: Brand new AC system for total peace of mind. Primary Bath: Featu

Key facts

• New stove
• Modern upgrades
• Lifetime warranty

Tags

• MASSIVE LIVING SPACE
• MODERN UPGRADES
• BRIGHT AND OPEN LAYOUT
• HIGH-QUALITY WINDOWS
• LIFETIME WARRANTY
• NEW STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1985
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,983 (see listing for details)
• Exterior features: Property within Trails North Forty

Interior

• Bedrooms: See listing for bedroom breakdown and levels
• Interior features: Located in the Trails North Forty subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 3.9% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,311/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1158% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.56%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $81,874
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $191,948
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32174

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,330/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $1,685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Arrowhead Dr Ormond Beach, FL	5.0	3.0	3061	$4,200	$1.37	23d	1	0.32mi
25 Cherokee Trl Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2056	$2,600	$1.26	14d	1	0.52mi
36 Spring Meadows Dr Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2036	$2,700	$1.33	23d	1	0.63mi
75 Trailmark Ct Ormond Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2308	$3,500	$1.52	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $130,000 Active
2. 2014-05-30
   soldstatus $180,000
3. 1995-06-01
   soldstatus $120,000
4. 1984-11-01
   soldstatus $71,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,330 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,330 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,330
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,178
• − Management: −$3,178
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $19,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,639
• After-tax cash flow: $15,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ormond Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #965

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ormond Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 69,624
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,783
• Household income: $71,011
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1158.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.97%
• Current HPI: 271.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+81.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,330 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.