1245 N Thompson Ave · Ajo, AZ 85321

$94,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1977 10,574 sqft lot $82/sqft · 9% below area Est $103k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Large lot
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 6.9% in Ajo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Ajo Unified District (4409) (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.20%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,482
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: -8.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 N Thompson Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,136 (-1%)	11mo	$60,000	$53	76
901 N Sartillion Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	7mo	$147,000	$124	75
801 N Cameron Ave N	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-3%)	9mo	$49,000	$44	66
361 W Placer St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	5mo	$147,000	$121	50
741 W Palo Verde Ave N	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,060 (-8%)	3mo	$100,000	$94	50
211 W 1st Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,082 (-6%)	2mo	$160,000	$148	49
620 N Connolly Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0	989 (-14%)	12mo	$120,000	$121	46
330 W Ocotillo Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,030 (-10%)	7mo	$130,000	$126	42
241 W 1st Ave	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,114 (-3%)	20mo	$168,000	$151	41
310 W 5th St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (+6%)	14mo	$110,000	$90	38
411 W North St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (+15%)	3mo	$155,000	$117	37
251 W 8th St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (+15%)	6mo	$210,000	$159	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,026
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $32,694
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85321

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $362	+0% $335	+5% $308	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $288	+0% $335	+5% $382	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $359	base $335	+0.5pp $311	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,500 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,500 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,500 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,500 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,500 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,500 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,500 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,500 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,500 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 158 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 157 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $94,500 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

18. 2026-05-01
    price $150,000 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

19. 2026-04-07
    status Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

20. 2026-03-26
    status Pending 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

21. 2026-03-20
    price $94,500 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

22. 2026-03-05
    status Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

23. 2026-03-01
    status Pending 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

24. 2025-12-09
    listed $111,000 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    Diamond in the rough - towards the end of a remodel - most materials in the house - finish it up - livable the way it is - better finished - laundry room could be 3rd bedroom with some adjustments - large lot. Seller will not entertain assignments/double escrows

25. 2023-01-30
    soldstatus $82,000
26. 1981-01-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $2,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$634
• After-tax cash flow: $3,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ajo Unified District (4409)
• NCES district ID: 0400520
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,237
• Composite: 23.59/100
• National rank: #13264
• State rank: #343 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Ajo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ajo, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,313

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.38%
• Current HPI: 173.7704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+530.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $94,500 ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $150,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $94,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $111,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1981-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.