815 Howell Ave · Adrian, MI 49221

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot Est $150k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.6% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Michener Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,149 of 1,397 statewide, top 84%, 284 students, 92% FRL); Springbrook Middle School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #303 of 493 statewide, top 62%, 641 students, 71% FRL); Adrian High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 781 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 58% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $160k implies a 1500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.42%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
736 State St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+2%)	11mo	$168,000	$137	73
415 W Beecher St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (-5%)	6mo	$135,574	$119	70
424 W Summit St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-10%)	9mo	$135,000	$125	69
734 S Winter St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+15%)	4mo	$204,000	$148	68
322 Lawrence Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,244 (+4%)	4mo	$134,900	$108	68
956 Howell Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+8%)	7mo	$140,000	$108	67
980 State St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-9%)	6mo	$142,000	$130	66
810 Division St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (-3%)	11mo	$135,000	$116	63
318 Merrick St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (+9%)	8mo	$50,000	$38	54
1162 July Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-11%)	0mo	$177,000	$165	46
422 March Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-11%)	8mo	$155,000	$144	42
334 Erie St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,375 (+15%)	10mo	$85,000	$62	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,113
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $31,062
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $444	+0% $389	+5% $334	+10% $279
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $314	+0% $389	+5% $464	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $470	-0.5pp $430	base $389	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 E Maple Ave Unit 1 Adrian, MI	2.0	1.0	826	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	1.09mi
1962 W Cadmus Rd Adrian, MI	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,250	$1.92	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-02
   historical 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

2. 2026-04-02
   listed $160,000 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

3. 2026-04-02
   historical 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

4. 2026-04-02
   listed $160,000 279-char remark

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

5. 2026-04-02
   listed $160,000

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

6. 2026-04-02
   historical

   Show marketing remark (279 chars)

   Another fabulous home built by Habitat for Humanity of Lenawee County. Every attention to detail in this energy efficient new construction with a practical floor plan. This home was listed and sold same day and program is for owner occupants that qualify for the Habitat program.

7. 2017-04-03
   soldstatus $10,000
8. 2017-04-03
   soldstatus $10,000 Closed
9. 2017-03-27
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
10. 2017-03-17
    price $9,600
11. 2017-02-14
    historical
12. 2017-02-13
    historical
13. 2017-02-11
    price $10,600
14. 2017-02-10
    listed $10,600,000 Active
15. 2017-02-10
    listed $9,600
16. 2017-02-01
    listed $10,600 Active
17. 2017-02-01
    listed $10,600 Active
18. 2010-04-16
    historical
19. 2010-04-15
    historical
20. 2005-07-21
    listed $55,000
21. 2005-07-21
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $4,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+190.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $160,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-04-03 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-03 Sold (MLS) $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-03-27 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-17 Price Changed $9,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-11 Price Changed $10,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-10 Listed $10,600,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-10 Listed $9,600 REALCOMP
• 2017-02-01 Listed $10,600 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listed $10,600 REALCOMP
• 2010-04-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-04-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-07-21 Listed $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-07-21 Listed $55,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-10.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $242 · -50.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.