14687 Canyon Pines Ln · New Caney, TX 77357

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 4,917 sqft lot Garage $91/sqft · 42% below area Est $250k · 42% under $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fresh, functional, and ready to make a move—this 3-bedroom, 2-bath New Caney home brings the right mix of comfort and convenience. Enjoy natural light, an open layout, island kitchen, backyard space, and a 2-car attached garage. Located in Harrington Trails with community pool, splash pad, playground, walking trails, and access near Valley Ranch, Grand Parkway, Hwy 59, Big Rivers, and Lake Houston Wilderness Park.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Island kitchen
• Splash pad

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• BACKYARD SPACE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• SPLASH PAD
• PLAYGROUND
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.7% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.33%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,518
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -41.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14950 Cypress Hollow Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,585 (0%)	0mo	$160,000	$101	92
14784 Hazel Branch Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-2%)	2mo	$215,000	$138	91
14729 Hazel Branch Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-2%)	3mo	$249,900	$160	89
21054 Wenze Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,760 (+11%)	4mo	$240,000	$136	74
14322 Moonflower Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-1%)	3mo	$264,990	$168	72
21714 Piper Betel Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-7%)	1mo	$239,990	$163	62
21626 Jasmine Star Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+7%)	3mo	$249,990	$148	61
21151 Waze Lewis Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-9%)	0mo	$200,000	$139	60
14278 Moonflower Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-6%)	3mo	$263,590	$177	58
21710 Piper Betel Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-11%)	3mo	$244,990	$173	54
14310 Moonflower Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+10%)	4mo	$274,590	$157	49
21718 Piper Betel Rd	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+10%)	4mo	$279,990	$160	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $59
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $16,980
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 172 active · 94 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $243,900 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 95 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1516
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $501	+0% $451	+5% $401	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $375	+0% $451	+5% $527	+10% $603
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $488	base $451	+0.5pp $414	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	90d	1	0.13mi
14939 Cypress Hollow Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,625	$1.12	3d	1	0.16mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	107d	1	0.23mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,649	$0.92	7d	55	0.29mi
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	165d	1	0.32mi
21500 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$1,925	$0.89	74d	1	0.36mi
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	76d	1	0.37mi
21655 Cottage Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,900	$1.38	41d	1	0.56mi
15815 Kropik Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,495	$1.01	10d	1	0.83mi
15815 Kropik Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,495	$1.01	90d	1	0.83mi
14373 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,400	$0.74	184d	1	0.84mi
14367 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,375	$0.90	23d	1	0.87mi
14367 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,375	$0.90	10d	1	0.87mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Harrington Trails Residential association (annual fee of $750)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationBuilt in 2022Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: DeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 16)Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 10 x 12)One first-floor bedroom (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen islandTub with showerKitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $63/mo · $756/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $145,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $145,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $145,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $145,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $145,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $145,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $145,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    price $145,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    statusdays on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    status $165,000 Pending 61 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $4,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,925–$23,775 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in fair condition with good systems and flooring. Minor repairs and maintenance are needed, but it's move-in ready with good curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Minor landscaping — some patches of grass need trimming
• Minor fence — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental landscaping — improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Lakes El F TX #3,311/4,322 Nat'l #31,832/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Harrington Trails Residential association (annual fee of $750)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFull ownershipSlab foundationBuilt in 2022Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: DeckPatioFence (back yard)Private yardSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 16)Two additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 10 x 12)One first-floor bedroom (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen islandTub with showerKitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-35.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-19 Rental Removed $1,850 RENTSPREE
• 2024-11-13 Listed for Rent $1,850 RENTSPREE
• 2024-11-06 Rental Removed $1,850 RENTSPREE
• 2024-10-25 Listed for Rent $1,850 RENTSPREE
• 2024-10-25 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed for Rent $1,850 HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $264,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-07-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-29 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listed $254,390 HARMLS

Property tax history

+99.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,614 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.