5845 Mayflower Way · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,589 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 2021 6,098 sqft lot Est $437k · 32% under $463/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. SELLER IS MOTIVATED and has priced this home to sell--- Located in the desirable ADULT ACTIVE LIFESTYLE Community of Del Webb Naples (55+), Welcome to the "CASCADIA" Model END UNIT (Attached VILLA) w/ 2 bedrooms PLUS Den/Office including FRENCH DOORS, 2 Full Bathrooms and a spacious 2 Car Garage. Total Living area of 1602sf. LOW DUES include lawn care & a Vast Array of UPSCALE Social Amenities. The Western Exposure PRESERVE VIEW from your EXTENDED Screened-in Lanai is PRISTINE and perfect for outdoor grilling and gazing at the sunset. This home features TILE FLOORING, 8' Doors and Window Treatments; HU

Key facts

• Resort-styled pool
• Golf simulator
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• CASCADIA MODEL END UNIT
• WESTERN EXPOSURE PRESERVE VIEW
• EXTENDED SCREENED-IN LANAI
• HURRICANE IMPACT WINDOWS
• RESORT-STYLED POOL
• GOLF SIMULATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deeded property restrictions: No RV allowed
• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees $5,552; Total one-time fees $1,700; One-time special assessment fee $1,350
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $1,185 quarterly; Master HOA fee $203 quarterly; Master-managed, professional management; HOA maintenance covers cable, internet/WiFi, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, recreation facilities, street lights; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, fitness center (attended), exercise room, golf course (public), bocce, tennis, pickleball, billiards, dog park, restaurant, beauty salon, BBQ/picnic, sidewalks, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community; Impact-resistant doors and windows
• Utilities: Central water (assessment unpaid); Central sewer (assessment unpaid); Cable available
• Home design: Residential attached villa (carriage/coach, end-unit); One story; Rear exposure to the west; Located in Ave Maria community
• Construction: Built in 2021; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Foundations and structure per concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Screened lanai/porch; Landscaped and wooded views; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator with icemaker; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Master bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: French doors; High-speed internet available; Pull-down attic stairs; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; Great room floor plan; Two ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-464/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (2.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,228/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $436,975
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6373 Liberty St	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,674 (+5%)	11mo	$460,000	$275	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-25,092
• Equity at exit: $70,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-747
• Equity at exit: $73,479

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,469/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$463
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,277

Max offer price $288,168

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	23d	1	0.14mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	23d	1	0.17mi
5728 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2087	$2,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.22mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	23d	1	0.26mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	23d	1	0.28mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	23d	1	0.33mi
5709 Constitution St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	23d	1	0.34mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	23d	1	0.39mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	23d	1	0.39mi
6421 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1922	$5,800	$3.02	23d	1	0.65mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	23d	1	0.67mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	23d	1	0.81mi
5657 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1981	$2,400	$1.21	14d	1	0.84mi
5661 Agostino Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,350	$1.07	14d	1	0.84mi
5573 Cobalto Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	14d	1	0.93mi
5573 Cobalto Way Unit 5573 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1921	$2,400	$1.25	14d	1	0.93mi
5474 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2032	$2,650	$1.30	23d	1	0.93mi
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	14d	1	0.99mi
5639 Argento Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	23d	1	1.01mi
5574 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1630	$2,250	$1.38	21d	1	1.02mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	23d	1	1.02mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	23d	1	1.04mi
5688 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	14d	1	1.04mi
5716 Cassidy Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,300	$1.19	23d	1	1.05mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	23d	1	1.06mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	23d	1	1.07mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	21d	1	1.11mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	21d	1	1.15mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	23d	1	1.23mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	23d	1	1.25mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	1.30mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	23d	1	1.30mi
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	23d	1	1.30mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	23d	1	1.30mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	14d	1	1.30mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$6,295	$2.98	23d	1	1.30mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	1.30mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	1.30mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	23d	1	1.30mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $463 · $5,556/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $295,000 Pending 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $295,000 Pending With Contingencies 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $295,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $295,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $295,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-02-13
   price $339,900
9. 2026-01-11
   price $348,900
10. 2026-01-03
    status Active
11. 2025-12-19
    status Pending With Contingencies
12. 2025-10-31
    listed $354,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,469 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,469 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$5,469
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,099
• − Management: −$3,099
• − HOA: −$5,556
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$5,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $339,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $348,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-19 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $354,900 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+48.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,469 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.