2236 Fayhill Dr · Covedale, OH 45238

$174,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $216k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Split level, 3 bedroom, backyard deck, 2 full bathrooms, single garage. Rental income as it is currently being rented. Feel free to contact us at 609-412-0912 or 513-910-5338 Start showing property after June 15th

Key facts

• Backyard deck
• Built 1982

Tags

• BACKYARD DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-120/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Covedale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#235 in OH, #3,713 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Cincinnati Public Schools (urban): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #581 of 656 in OH (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $174k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,722 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5487 Belcross Ct	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,525 (+3%)	2mo	$285,000	$187	71
3249 Brater Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,499 (+1%)	2mo	$190,000	$127	71
5377 Sidney Rd	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,358 (-8%)	0mo	$221,000	$163	62
5461 Bellfield Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+15%)	2mo	$248,000	$146	61
2100 Faywood Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-12%)	6mo	$212,000	$163	58
3604 Muddy Creek Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,289 (-13%)	4mo	$160,000	$124	56
5524 Sidney Rd	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,276 (-14%)	3mo	$289,000	$226	56
2354 Neeb Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-4%)	6mo	$279,000	$196	54
3659 Allview Cir	0.42mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,308 (-12%)	6mo	$131,000	$100	49
3041 Crestmoor Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+8%)	1mo	$225,000	$140	47
3442 Corrine Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+14%)	4mo	$180,000	$107	45
3088 Belden Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+11%)	2mo	$231,500	$141	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,726
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,000
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45238

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,347/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $172,240

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3414 Corrine Ave Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,861	$1.21	1d	1	0.60mi
5256 Ponce Ln Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,866	$1.47	1d	1	0.66mi
3114 Roosevelt Ave Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	23d	1	0.76mi
3053 N Hegry Cir #1 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	954	$1,250	$1.31	4d	1	0.91mi
2511 Ferguson Rd Unit 2537 Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	23d	1	1.05mi
2598 Ferguson Rd Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,145	$1.21	4d	1	1.11mi
2969 Four Towers Dr Unit 2 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$1,150	$1.20	23d	1	1.13mi
2905 Queen City Ave Unit 1 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.21mi
2905 Queen City Ave Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	1.21mi
5408 Style Ln Cincinnati, OH	4.0	1.5	1824	$2,625	$1.44	1d	1	1.22mi
3393 Robb Ave Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.5	1235	$1,750	$1.42	23d	1	1.25mi
4213 Applegate Ave Unit 2 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,300	$1.23	14d	1	1.25mi
2706 E Tower Dr Cincinnati, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$1,520	$1.60	1d	61	1.34mi
1723 Tuxworth Ave Cincinnati, OH	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $174,000 Active
2. 2012-01-04
   listed $114,900
3. 2011-08-13
   historical
4. 2011-05-13
   listed $119,900
5. 2006-05-27
   historical
6. 2006-02-26
   listed $119,900
7. 1999-06-08
   soldstatus $94,000
8. 1995-08-22
   soldstatus $77,632
9. 1992-04-02
   soldstatus $73,500
10. 1987-05-13
    soldstatus $55,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,347 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,347 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$3,347
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$3,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$726
• After-tax cash flow: $607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cincinnati Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3904375
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $35,743
• Composite: 25.21/100
• National rank: #7508
• State rank: #581 of 656 in OH

Livability — Covedale

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #3713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covedale, OH
• County: Hamilton County · 701,295 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 48,351
• Household income: $66,277
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2012.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 826,054 people
• By 2030: 830,947 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 832,319 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 822,428 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 788,688 · -4.5%
• By 2100: 710,674 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 28% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.57%
• Current HPI: 213.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+211.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $174,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-01-04 Listed $114,900 Cincy MLS
• 2011-08-13 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2011-05-13 Listed $119,900 Cincy MLS
• 2006-05-27 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2006-02-26 Listed $119,900 Cincy MLS
• 1999-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $77,632 Public Records
• 1992-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 1987-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $55,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,347 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.