3100 Going to the Sun · Sebring, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.5/30.0
- ARV discount +13.8/15.0
- DSCR +7.5/10.0
- 1% rule +6.9/10.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -5.5
$105,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to your new home in the friendly 55+ community of Tanglewood in Sebring, FL! This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and plenty of space to enjoy the Florida lifestyle. Step inside to find new flooring, a spacious layout with a formal dining room, and abundant storage throughout & mdash; including two pantries for added convenience. The thoughtfully designed floor plan even features the laundry located in the primary bathroom, making everyday living easier. Major updates provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2022), new A/C (2021), and a brand-new hot water heater (2025).
Key facts
- Formal dining room
- New flooring
- New a/c
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
- Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.7% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
- Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Sun 'N Lake Elementary School (math 63% / reading 59%, grade B, #653 of 2,144 statewide, top 31%, 618 students, 67% FRL); Hill-Gustat Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 705 students, 63% FRL); Avon Park High School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 928 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1055 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.38% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.12%
- Cash-on-cash
- 17.26%
- DSCR
- 1.77
- GRM
- 6.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $122,120
- List price
- $105,000
- Delta
- -14.02%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 6 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3312 Beartooth Pass | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,620 (+3%) | 4mo | $50,000 | $31 | 89 |
| 2556 Georgia St | 0.40mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,396 (-11%) | 14mo | $172,000 | $123 | 46 |
| 1405 Lisbon Ln | 0.88mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,456 (-7%) | 4mo | $90,000 | $62 | 44 |
| 1304 Briaridge Cir N | 0.87mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,492 (-5%) | 13mo | $82,000 | $55 | 41 |
| 3352 Delaware Ave | 0.39mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,300 (-17%) | 17mo | $157,000 | $121 | 38 |
| 3201 New York Ave | 0.51mi | 3/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 19mo | $150,000 | $112 | 36 |
| 2515 Seattle Ave | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 | 1,806 (+15%) | 19mo | $215,000 | $119 | 34 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 7.1%
- Equity multiple
- 1.27×
- Total profit
- $7,986
- Equity at exit
- $15,656
- IRR
- 15.2%
- Equity multiple
- 2.15×
- Total profit
- $33,934
- Equity at exit
- $9,078
Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 32 active · 1 under contract
- Months of supply
- 38.4 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $88,900 ($59/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 1 d
- This list price
- 81% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +32.1% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33872
- Home prices YoY
- -25.8%
- Rents YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 1055
- Price-to-rent
- 6.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,454 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$551
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
- Insurance
- −$44
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$305
- Net cashflow
- $423
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $495 | -5% $459 | +0% $423 | +5% $386 | +10% $350 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $308 | -5% $365 | +0% $423 | +5% $480 | +10% $538 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $476 | -0.5pp $449 | base $423 | +0.5pp $396 | +1.0pp $368 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $26,250
- Closing costs
- $3,150
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 16 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3802 Peugeot St Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1563 | $1,550 | $0.99 | 6d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 1409 Palm Way Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1768 | $1,900 | $1.07 | 6d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 4407 Sunbeam St Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1250 | $2,200 | $1.76 | 6d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 4700 Sunbeam St Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1270 | $1,900 | $1.50 | 6d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 4616 Granada Blvd Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1319 | $1,600 | $1.21 | 6d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 5007 Granada Blvd Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1154 | $2,500 | $2.17 | 6d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 5722 Granada Blvd Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1368 | $1,800 | $1.32 | 6d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 3919 Tangier St Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1552 | $1,950 | $1.26 | 6d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 3757 Sebring Pkwy Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1460 | $2,000 | $1.37 | 6d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 3801 Edgewater Dr Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1234 | $1,550 | $1.26 | 6d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 4502 Mercado Dr Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1260 | $1,450 | $1.15 | 4d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 4500 Mercado Dr Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1260 | $1,450 | $1.15 | 6d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 3908 Garienda Ave Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1723 | $2,400 | $1.39 | 6d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 4000 Garienda Ave Sebring, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1723 | $2,450 | $1.42 | 6d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 3915 Edgewater Dr Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1484 | $1,500 | $1.01 | 6d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 4315 Vantage Cir Sebring, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1101 | $1,600 | $1.45 | 6d | 1 | 1.48mi |
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-24days on market $105,000 Active 221 DOM
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2026-09-24days on market $105,000 Active 220 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $105,000 Active 219 DOM
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2026-09-21days on market $105,000 Active 218 DOM
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2026-09-20days on market $105,000 Active 217 DOM
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2026-09-18days on market $105,000 Active 215 DOM
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2026-09-17days on market $105,000 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $105,000 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $105,000 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $105,000 Active 211 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $105,000 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $105,000 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $105,000 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $105,000 Active 202 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $105,000 Active 201 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $105,000 Active 200 DOM
-
2026-09-02days on market $105,000 Active 199 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $105,000 Active 196 DOM
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2026-08-29days on market $105,000 Active 195 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $105,000 Active 194 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $105,000 Active 191 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $105,000 Active 190 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $105,000 Active 189 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $105,000 Active 188 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $105,000 Active 187 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $105,000 Active 186 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $105,000 Active 185 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $105,000 Active 184 DOM
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2026-08-17days on market $105,000 Active 183 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $105,000 Active 182 DOM
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2026-08-15days on market $105,000 Active 181 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $105,000 Active 180 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $105,000 Active 179 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $105,000 Active 178 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $105,000 Active 177 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $105,000 Active 176 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $105,000 Active 175 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $105,000 Active 174 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $105,000 Active 173 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $105,000 Active 172 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $105,000 Active 171 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $105,000 Active 170 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $105,000 Active 169 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $105,000 Active 166 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $105,000 Active 165 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $105,000 Active 164 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $105,000 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $105,000 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $105,000 Active 158 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $105,000 Active 157 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,444
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,882
- − Property taxes
- −$1,575
- − Insurance
- −$525
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,396
- − Management
- −$1,396
- − Depreciation
- −$3,055
- Taxable income
- $3,617
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$868
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,205/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in a 55+ community offers a good condition with recent updates and a good curb appeal.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
- Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Highlands
- NCES district ID
- 1200840
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $35,276
- Composite
- 36.42/100
- National rank
- #4672
- State rank
- #54 of 73 in FL
Livability — Sebring
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #618
- US rank
- #11992
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Highlands County · 99,674 people
- City population
- 50,797
- Metro
- Sebring-Avon Park, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 13,746
- Household income
- $69,578
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 6% of renters
Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 99,674 people
- By 2030
- 99,615 · -0.1%
- By 2040
- 99,342 · -0.3%
- By 2050
- 98,242 · -1.4%
- By 2075
- 93,291 · -6.4%
- By 2100
- 79,894 · -19.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority White (65%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 12% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Highlands
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -78.20%
- Current HPI
- 225.3761
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.65%
- Metro
- Sebring-Avon Park, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-02-07 Listed $105,000 Fizber.com
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…