Modern Prairie Plan · Odessa, TX 79765

$259,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 832 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our 1,600 square-foot Modern Prairie affordable new home greets you with stunning curb appeal featuring a brick exterior with cedar accents and a grand tower entryway. This thoughtful layout of our 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom open-concept floor plan allows for the most efficient and affordable use of space. The home's kitchen offers an island with bar seating, an enclosed pantry, and separate counter space perfect for a coffee bar. The secluded master bedroom boasts a large walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with a double vanity. Visit our New Home Center to schedule your VIP tour of this brand new home!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 831 days

🏗️ New construction. The $259,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,921.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 433 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 51% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 832 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $228,756 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 832 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.29%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,921
• List price: $259,950
• Delta: -6.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,947
• Equity at exit: $41,588

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-56,977
• Equity at exit: $24,116

Cash invested: $78,098 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,547 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,184/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,440

Max offer price $278,921

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $181	+0% $84	+5% $-12	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-16	+0% $84	+5% $185	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $155	base $84	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,730
• Closing costs: $8,368
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9918 Lamar Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,400	$1.50	14d	1	0.27mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	22d	1	0.28mi
301 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,950	$1.44	45d	1	0.32mi
320 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.35mi
10306 Sheriff St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,050	$1.65	14d	1	0.42mi
9219 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2118	$2,800	$1.32	45d	1	0.45mi
10310 Creek St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	14d	1	0.46mi
9914 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,200	$1.55	45d	1	0.49mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	14d	1	0.56mi
401 Farmstead Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	45d	1	0.58mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	45d	1	0.59mi
404 Pratt Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	0.64mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	14d	1	0.66mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	45d	1	0.72mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	14d	1	0.73mi
800 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,550	$1.27	45d	1	0.78mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	45d	1	0.79mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	22d	1	1.08mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	14d	1	1.09mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	45d	1	1.10mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	1.10mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	45d	1	1.11mi
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	1.15mi
8623 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,800	$1.46	45d	1	1.24mi
9031 Antelope Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	1.25mi
8610 Lamar Ave Unit NA Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	14d	1	1.25mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	14d	1	1.28mi
1023 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	14d	1	1.34mi
1028 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,145	$1.47	14d	1	1.35mi
915 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$3,100	$1.49	22d	1	1.39mi
1210 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	45d	1	1.43mi
493 Chitalpa Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,500	$1.99	45d	1	1.44mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,500	$1.82	14d	1	1.44mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	22d	1	1.44mi
1218 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,950 Active 832 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,950 Active 830 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,950 Active 829 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,950 Active 828 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,950 Active 827 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,950 Active 826 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,950 Active 824 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,950 Active 823 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,950 Active 821 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,950 Active 820 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,950 Active 819 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,950 Active 818 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,950 Active 813 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,950 Active 812 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,950 Active 811 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,950 Active 810 DOM
17. 2024-04-19
    price $259,950 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Our 1,600 square-foot Modern Prairie affordable new home greets you with stunning curb appeal featuring a brick exterior with cedar accents and a grand tower entryway. This thoughtful layout of our 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom open-concept floor plan allows for the most efficient and affordable use of space. The home's kitchen offers an island with bar seating, an enclosed pantry, and separate counter space perfect for a coffee bar. The secluded master bedroom boasts a large walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with a double vanity. Visit our New Home Center to schedule your VIP tour of this brand new home!

18. 2024-03-12
    listed $252,950 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Our 1,600 square-foot Modern Prairie affordable new home greets you with stunning curb appeal featuring a brick exterior with cedar accents and a grand tower entryway. This thoughtful layout of our 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom open-concept floor plan allows for the most efficient and affordable use of space. The home's kitchen offers an island with bar seating, an enclosed pantry, and separate counter space perfect for a coffee bar. The secluded master bedroom boasts a large walk-in closet and en suite bathroom with a double vanity. Visit our New Home Center to schedule your VIP tour of this brand new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,624
• − Property taxes: −$4,184
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,445
• − Management: −$2,445
• − Depreciation: −$8,114
• Taxable loss: −$3,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$875
• After-tax cash flow: $1,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, landscaping, and interior updates. Significant improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear on the brick exterior with cedar accents.
• Major roof — No clear view of the roof condition.
• Major landscaping — Dry, overgrown lawn with no visible landscaping features.
• Major interior walls and paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos.
• Major HVAC and mechanical systems — No systems are visible in the photos.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improving the curb appeal and exterior condition would enhance both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems upgrade — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior painting and updates — Updating interior walls and paint would improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear on the brick exterior with cedar accents.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No clear view of the roof condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Dry, overgrown lawn with no visible landscaping features.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC and mechanical systems · No systems are visible in the photos.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improving the curb appeal and exterior condition would enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems upgrade — Upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior painting and updates — Updating interior walls and paint would improve the home's appearance and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $259,950 Zillow
• 2024-03-12 Listed $252,950 Zillow